NAC Breda 1-0 VVV Venlo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NAC Breda at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this NAC Breda vs VVV Venlo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees VVV Venlo travel to Rat Verlegh Stadion to take on NAC Breda. The game is scheduled for Friday 15 March 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, NAC Breda stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, NAC Breda have posted 4W 4D 2L at Rat Verlegh Stadion — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
VVV Venlo — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
VVV Venlo's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: NAC Breda 1.50 PPG, VVV Venlo 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. NAC Breda register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, VVV Venlo in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for NAC Breda, 2 for VVV Venlo and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2023, ended 1–3 with VVV Venlo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
NAC Breda trading profile (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
VVV Venlo trading profile (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — NAC Breda 70% and VVV Venlo 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 65% | VVV Venlo 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.53 xG and VVV Venlo 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.948 / defence 1.005 | VVV Venlo attack 0.838 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.616 / away 1.339. Data: 67 NAC Breda games / 67 VVV Venlo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 45% | Draw 28% | VVV Venlo 27%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | VVV Venlo 3.70. NAC Breda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates NAC Breda as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NAC Breda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: NAC Breda 70% | VVV Venlo 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs VVV Venlo | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 15 Mar 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 45% | Draw 28% | VVV Venlo 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG NAC Breda 1.53 / VVV Venlo 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.948 / def 1.005 | VVV Venlo attack 0.838 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.616 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.13
VVV Venlo xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs VVV Venlo kick off?
NAC Breda vs VVV Venlo kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 15 March 2024 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs VVV Venlo?
NAC Breda 1 - 0 VVV Venlo.
Where is NAC Breda vs VVV Venlo being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs VVV Venlo part of?
NAC Breda vs VVV Venlo is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs VVV Venlo?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 45% chance of winning, VVV Venlo a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs VVV Venlo?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both NAC Breda and VVV Venlo will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs VVV Venlo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and VVV Venlo?
Record (5 meetings): NAC Breda 2W | Draws 1 | VVV Venlo 2W.
What form are NAC Breda and VVV Venlo in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. VVV Venlo (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates NAC Breda's attack at 0.95x the league average against VVV Venlo's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, VVV Venlo's attack versus NAC Breda's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
45%
2.21
28%
3.57
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
2.65
1.13
VVV Venlo xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
15%
6.83
6%
17.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.1 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs VVV Venlo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and VVV Venlo expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.13 for VVV Venlo, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs VVV Venlo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
NAC Breda's recent record stands at 33W 12D 26L from 71 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-W in the last five.
VVV Venlo, meanwhile, have gone 28W 22D 21L across 71 games — 1.49 PPG, with D-L-D-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: NAC Breda on 1.56 PPG, VVV Venlo on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, NAC Breda have managed 17W 7D 11L from 35 games — 1.66 PPG in front of their own supporters.
VVV Venlo's away record stands at 13W 11D 11L across 35 trips, a 1.43 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
NAC Breda are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; VVV Venlo are on 1.52 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; VVV Venlo in 69%.
Last 71 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Current Season
VVV Venlo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and VVV Venlo in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 33W 12D 26L in their last 71 games (1.56 PPG), while VVV Venlo have gone 28W 22D 21L in their last 71 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or VVV Venlo away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.66 PPG; VVV Venlo away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between NAC Breda and VVV Venlo runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
NAC Breda's record when hosting VVV Venlo specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
NAC Breda
1
Draws
2
VVV Venlo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and VVV Venlo?
From 6 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 3, VVV Venlo have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and VVV Venlo last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2024, when NAC Breda 1-0 VVV Venlo.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and VVV Venlo?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — NAC Breda at 69%, VVV Venlo at 69%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (NAC Breda) and 60% (VVV Venlo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / VVV Venlo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play VVV Venlo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of NAC Breda's games and 69% of VVV Venlo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NAC Breda vs VVV Venlo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of NAC Breda's matches and 60% of VVV Venlo's.
Do NAC Breda and VVV Venlo tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, VVV Venlo in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as NAC Breda edge out VVV Venlo 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda beat VVV Venlo 1-0 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.53 xG and VVV Venlo 1.13 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. VVV Venlo landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.95 / defence 1.00 against VVV Venlo attack 0.84 / defence 1.00, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 45% | Draw 28% | VVV Venlo 27%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 65%, VVV Venlo 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
VVV Venlo's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NAC Breda 1.56 PPG, VVV Venlo 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NAC Breda win broke the near-deadlock. NAC Breda (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.