Cambuur 1-0 Telstar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cambuur at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cambuur vs Telstar fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Telstar travel to Cambuur Stadion to take on Cambuur. The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 March 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Cambuur have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: W L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cambuur have posted 2W 3D 5L at Cambuur Stadion — 0.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Telstar — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Telstar's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Telstar's 1.30 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Cambuur's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Cambuur, 0 for Telstar and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2023, ended 3–2 with Cambuur winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Cambuur trading profile (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Telstar trading profile (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambuur 59% versus Telstar 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambuur 70% | Telstar 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 1.99 xG and Telstar 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 1.092 / defence 1.547 | Telstar attack 0.824 / defence 1.123. League average goals — home 1.626 / away 1.337. Data: 30 Cambuur games / 68 Telstar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 44% | Draw 23% | Telstar 33%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 2.27 | Draw 4.35 | Telstar 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.70. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.70 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.99 / 1.70) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cambuur as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Telstar (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cambuur offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.70 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 71% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cambuur 100% | Telstar 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs Telstar | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Cambuur Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Mar 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 44% | Draw 23% | Telstar 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 71% | xG Cambuur 1.99 / Telstar 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 1.092 / def 1.547 | Telstar attack 0.824 / def 1.123 | league avg home 1.626 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Telstar xG
71%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs Telstar kick off?
Cambuur vs Telstar kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 23 March 2024 at Cambuur Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs Telstar?
Cambuur 1 - 0 Telstar.
Where is Cambuur vs Telstar being played?
The match is being played at Cambuur Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs Telstar part of?
Cambuur vs Telstar is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs Telstar?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 44% chance of winning, Telstar a 33% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs Telstar?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Cambuur and Telstar will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs Telstar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Telstar?
Record (1 meetings): Cambuur 1W | Draws 0 | Telstar 0W.
What form are Cambuur and Telstar in?
Cambuur (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Telstar (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cambuur's attack rating (1.09) and Telstar's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Telstar's attack versus Cambuur's defence, projects 1.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
44%
2.26
23%
4.36
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Cambuur xG
Total xG
3.70
1.70
Telstar xG
2.26
44%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.40
29%
BTTS No
3.50
Clean Sheet
18%
5.50
14%
7.34
Win to Nil
8%
12.40
4%
22.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 8.4 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.4 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs Telstar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Cambuur and Telstar expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Cambuur and 1.70 for Telstar, a combined total of 3.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs Telstar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 64 outings, Cambuur have picked up 0.91 PPG on a 16W 10D 38L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Telstar's form line: 20W 16D 28L from 64 games, 1.19 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cambuur on 0.91 PPG, Telstar on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cambuur have posted 0.88 PPG from 32 outings (8W 4D 20L).
On the road, Telstar have gone 8W 7D 17L from 32 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Cambuur are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 2.03 conceded per game recently; Telstar are on 1.05 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Current Season
Telstar
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and Telstar in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 16W 10D 38L in their last 64 games (0.91 PPG), while Telstar have gone 20W 16D 28L in their last 64 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or Telstar away?
Telstar's away record (0.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 0.88 PPG; Telstar away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Cambuur's record when hosting Telstar specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Cambuur
1
Draws
0
Telstar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Telstar?
From 4 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 3, Telstar have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and Telstar last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2025, when Cambuur 2-1 Telstar.
Who has won more matches between Cambuur and Telstar?
Cambuur have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambuur 56%, Telstar 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Cambuur and 44% for Telstar. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cambuur have failed to score in 34% of games; Telstar in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / Telstar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play Telstar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Cambuur's recent matches and 41% of Telstar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cambuur vs Telstar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Cambuur's matches and 44% of Telstar's.
Do Cambuur and Telstar tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Telstar in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cambuur edge out Telstar 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambuur beat Telstar 1-0 at Cambuur Stadion, Regular Season - 31, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 1.99 xG and Telstar 1.70 xG, a combined 3.70. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cambuur fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Telstar landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 1.09 / defence 1.55 against Telstar attack 0.82 / defence 1.12, drawn from 30/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 44% | Draw 23% | Telstar 33%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 70%, Telstar 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Telstar's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cambuur 0.91 PPG, Telstar 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cambuur win broke the near-deadlock. Cambuur (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Telstar (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.