FC OSS 4-2 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Den Bosch at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC OSS vs Den Bosch encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC OSS and Den Bosch meet at Frans Heesen Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 37. This fixture gets under way on Friday 17 April 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
FC OSS (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC OSS have posted 3W 0D 7L at Frans Heesen Stadion — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Den Bosch's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Den Bosch's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — FC OSS register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Den Bosch in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Den Bosch, who have claimed 6 wins from 9 meetings compared to 3 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2025, ended 2–5 with Den Bosch winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Den Bosch have won 6 of 9 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
FC OSS — key trading statistics (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Den Bosch — key trading statistics (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC OSS 54% versus Den Bosch 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC OSS 51% | Den Bosch 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 1.83 xG and Den Bosch 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 0.994 / defence 1.161 | Den Bosch attack 1.067 / defence 1.152. League average goals — home 1.599 / away 1.483. Data: 74 FC OSS games / 73 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC OSS 39% | Draw 22% | Den Bosch 39%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 2.56 | Draw 4.55 | Den Bosch 2.56. The draw (22%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.67. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.67 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.84) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 22% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 39% and away win at 39% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 3.67 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 71% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC OSS 80% | Den Bosch 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 39% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC OSS vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Frans Heesen Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 17 Apr 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC OSS 39% | Draw 22% | Den Bosch 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 71% | xG FC OSS 1.83 / Den Bosch 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: FC OSS attack 0.994 / def 1.161 | Den Bosch attack 1.067 / def 1.152 | league avg home 1.599 / away 1.483 • Poisson stance: Draw (22%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
FC OSS xG
Expected Goals
1.84
Den Bosch xG
71%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC OSS vs Den Bosch kick off?
FC OSS vs Den Bosch kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 17 April 2026 at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What was the final score in FC OSS vs Den Bosch?
FC OSS 4 - 2 Den Bosch.
Where is FC OSS vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What competition is FC OSS vs Den Bosch part of?
FC OSS vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC OSS vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives FC OSS a 39% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 39% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in FC OSS vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both FC OSS and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will FC OSS vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Den Bosch?
Record (9 meetings): FC OSS 3W | Draws 0 | Den Bosch 6W.
What form are FC OSS and Den Bosch in?
FC OSS (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Den Bosch (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FC OSS's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Den Bosch's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. Flip it around — Den Bosch's attack (1.07x) against FC OSS's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.84.
These ratings are built from 74/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (7.9%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
39%
2.56
22%
4.61
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
FC OSS xG
Total xG
3.67
1.84
Den Bosch xG
2.56
39%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.42
29%
BTTS No
3.40
Clean Sheet
16%
6.28
16%
6.24
Win to Nil
6%
16.11
6%
15.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 8.6 | 7.9 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.9 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC OSS vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are FC OSS and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for FC OSS and 1.84 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 3.67.
How confident is the prediction model for FC OSS vs Den Bosch?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC OSS's recent record stands at 17W 25D 32L from 74 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-W in the last five.
Den Bosch, meanwhile, have gone 29W 19D 26L across 74 games — 1.43 PPG, with L-W-W-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.03 PPG for FC OSS against 1.43 for Den Bosch. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FC OSS have managed 13W 7D 17L from 37 games — 1.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Den Bosch's away record stands at 11W 8D 18L across 37 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
FC OSS are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.49 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 74 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC OSS
Current Season
Den Bosch
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC OSS and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
FC OSS have gone 17W 25D 32L in their last 74 games (1.03 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 29W 19D 26L in their last 74 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC OSS at home or Den Bosch away?
FC OSS's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC OSS at home: 1.24 PPG; Den Bosch away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Den Bosch won 4-1 on 17 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC OSS have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Den Bosch — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC OSS
0
Draws
6
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Den Bosch?
From 10 meetings on record, FC OSS have won 4, Den Bosch have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC OSS and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when FC OSS 4-2 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between FC OSS and Den Bosch?
Den Bosch have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC OSS 57%, Den Bosch 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for FC OSS and 70% for Den Bosch. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC OSS have failed to score in 27% of games; Den Bosch in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC OSS home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC OSS play Den Bosch?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of FC OSS's games and 62% of Den Bosch's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC OSS vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of FC OSS's matches and 70% of Den Bosch's.
Do FC OSS and Den Bosch tend to score early?
FC OSS have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC OSS cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Den Bosch.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC OSS beat Den Bosch 4-2 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 37, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.83 xG and Den Bosch 1.84 xG, a combined 3.67. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. FC OSS beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.99 / defence 1.16 against Den Bosch attack 1.07 / defence 1.15, drawn from 74/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC OSS 39% | Draw 22% | Den Bosch 39%, with FC OSS to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 51%, Den Bosch 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC OSS's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Den Bosch's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC OSS 1.03 PPG, Den Bosch 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC OSS win broke the near-deadlock. FC OSS (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm. Den Bosch (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.