Jong Utrecht 0-3 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong Utrecht at 40%, yet in-form FC OSS provide a compelling counter-argument — this Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 27 as Jong Utrecht welcome FC OSS to Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch. Kick-off is set for Monday 26 February 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong Utrecht have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Jong Utrecht have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Jong Utrecht are significantly better at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch than their overall form suggests.
FC OSS — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC OSS's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour FC OSS — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Jong Utrecht, 3 for FC OSS and 0 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2023, ended 0–2 with FC OSS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Jong Utrecht trading profile (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
FC OSS trading profile (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Utrecht 44% versus FC OSS 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Utrecht 45% | FC OSS 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 1.06 xG and FC OSS 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 0.642 / defence 0.934 | FC OSS attack 0.608 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.647 / away 1.317. Jong Utrecht's attack strength of 0.642 is below the league average — the 1.06 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 64 Jong Utrecht games / 64 FC OSS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 40% | Draw 36% | FC OSS 23%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 2.50 | Draw 2.78 | FC OSS 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.81. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.81 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jong Utrecht as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC OSS (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong Utrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.81 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 27% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: Jong Utrecht 50% | FC OSS 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch • Kick-off: Monday 26 Feb 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 40% | Draw 36% | FC OSS 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 36% | xG Jong Utrecht 1.06 / FC OSS 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Utrecht attack 0.642 / def 0.934 | FC OSS attack 0.608 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.647 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Jong Utrecht (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Jong Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
0.75
FC OSS xG
36%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS kick off?
Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 26 February 2024 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What was the final score in Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS?
Jong Utrecht 0 - 3 FC OSS.
Where is Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What competition is Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS part of?
Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives Jong Utrecht a 40% chance of winning, FC OSS a 23% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Jong Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Jong Utrecht and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and FC OSS?
Record (5 meetings): Jong Utrecht 2W | Draws 0 | FC OSS 3W.
What form are Jong Utrecht and FC OSS in?
Jong Utrecht (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. FC OSS (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Jong Utrecht's attack at 0.64x the league average against FC OSS's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC OSS's attack versus Jong Utrecht's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.7%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Utrecht Win
40%
2.47
36%
2.77
23%
4.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Jong Utrecht xG
Total xG
1.81
0.75
FC OSS xG
2.47
40%
Home win
2.77
36%
Draw
4.27
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.75
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
19%
5.22
8%
12.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.4 | 12.2 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.4 | 13.0 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.2 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.1%.
How many goals are Jong Utrecht and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Jong Utrecht and 0.75 for FC OSS, a combined total of 1.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jong Utrecht's recent record stands at 12W 15D 37L from 64 games, a 0.80 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Jong Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC OSS, meanwhile, have gone 16W 9D 39L across 64 games — 0.89 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong Utrecht on 0.80 PPG, FC OSS on 0.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Jong Utrecht have managed 9W 10D 12L from 31 games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC OSS's away record stands at 5W 6D 20L across 31 trips, a 0.68 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong Utrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Jong Utrecht are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 0.98 scored and 1.91 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Utrecht
Blended
FC OSS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Utrecht and FC OSS in coming into this match?
Jong Utrecht have gone 12W 15D 37L in their last 64 games (0.80 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 16W 9D 39L in their last 64 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Utrecht at home or FC OSS away?
Jong Utrecht's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Utrecht at home: 1.19 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Feb 2022, when FC OSS won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong Utrecht's record when hosting FC OSS specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jong Utrecht
3
Draws
5
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and FC OSS?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong Utrecht have won 2, FC OSS have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jong Utrecht and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when FC OSS 3-1 Jong Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Jong Utrecht and FC OSS?
FC OSS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong Utrecht see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Utrecht 36%, FC OSS 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 26% (Jong Utrecht) and 52% (FC OSS).
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Jong Utrecht have failed to score in 45% of games; FC OSS in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Utrecht home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Utrecht play FC OSS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Jong Utrecht's recent matches and 45% of FC OSS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Jong Utrecht's recent games and 52% of FC OSS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong Utrecht and FC OSS tend to score early?
Jong Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC OSS run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Jong Utrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC OSS beat Jong Utrecht 0-3 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Regular Season - 27, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 1.06 xG and FC OSS 0.75 xG, a combined 1.81. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Jong Utrecht fell 1.1 short of their projected output. FC OSS outscored their 0.75 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 0.64 / defence 0.93 against FC OSS attack 0.61 / defence 1.00, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 40% | Draw 36% | FC OSS 23%, with Jong Utrecht to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a FC OSS win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 45%, FC OSS 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC OSS's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong Utrecht 0.80 PPG, FC OSS 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC OSS win broke the near-deadlock. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC OSS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.74 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.