Jong AZ 0-0 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Jong AZ at 57% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong AZ vs Den Bosch encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Den Bosch travel to AFAS Trainingscomplex to take on Jong AZ in Eerste Divisie (matchday 18). The game is scheduled for Monday 11 December 2023 at 19:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Jong AZ stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

At home, Jong AZ have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Jong AZ are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Across their last 10 games, Den Bosch have recorded 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Den Bosch have gone 1W 1D 8L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.

Jong AZ are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Jong AZ have won 1, Den Bosch 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.3 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 17 Feb 2023, ended Jong AZ 3–1 Den Bosch — a Jong AZ win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Jong AZ in-play and half-time data (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

Den Bosch in-play and half-time data (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong AZ 58% versus Den Bosch 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong AZ 62% | Den Bosch 67%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 2.04 xG and Den Bosch 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 1.055 / defence 1.100 | Den Bosch attack 0.762 / defence 1.213. League average goals — home 1.594 / away 1.376. Den Bosch's defence rating of 1.213 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Jong AZ's projected output up. Den Bosch's attack rating of 0.762 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.15. Data: built from Jong AZ's last 55 games and Den Bosch's last 55.

Result probabilities: Jong AZ 57% | Draw 23% | Den Bosch 20%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 1.76 | Draw 4.33 | Den Bosch 4.99. The model has a clear lean to Jong AZ (57%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (2.04 / 1.15) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong AZ at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.20 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Jong AZ's last 10 home games and Den Bosch's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Jong AZ 30% (last 10 home games) | Den Bosch 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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