Dordrecht 5-2 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dordrecht at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dordrecht vs Cambuur fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Cambuur travel to Matchoholic Stadion to take on Dordrecht. The game is scheduled for Friday 6 October 2023, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Dordrecht — All Games: 2W 7D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Matchoholic Stadion, Dordrecht have gone 2W 6D 2L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cambuur stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambuur's away record: 1W 0D 9L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Dordrecht 1.30 PPG, Cambuur 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Dordrecht in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Cambuur in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dordrecht 55% versus Cambuur 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 62% | Cambuur 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.97 xG and Cambuur 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 0.927 / defence 1.129 | Cambuur attack 1.084 / defence 1.360. League average goals — home 1.565 / away 1.391. Cambuur bring a strong defensive rating of 1.360 — this is suppressing Dordrecht's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Dordrecht games / 8 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 45% | Draw 22% | Cambuur 34%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 2.22 | Draw 4.55 | Cambuur 2.94. Dordrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.67. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.67 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.97 / 1.70) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dordrecht at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dordrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.67 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: Dordrecht 50% | Cambuur 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs Cambuur | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Matchoholic Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 6 Oct 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 45% | Draw 22% | Cambuur 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 70% | xG Dordrecht 1.97 / Cambuur 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 0.927 / def 1.129 | Cambuur attack 1.084 / def 1.360 | league avg home 1.565 / away 1.391 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Cambuur xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs Cambuur kick off?
Dordrecht vs Cambuur kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 6 October 2023 at Matchoholic Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs Cambuur?
Dordrecht 5 - 2 Cambuur.
Where is Dordrecht vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at Matchoholic Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs Cambuur part of?
Dordrecht vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 45% chance of winning, Cambuur a 34% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Dordrecht and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Cambuur?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dordrecht and Cambuur in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-D-D. Cambuur (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Dordrecht's attack rating (0.93) and Cambuur's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 1.97 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cambuur's attack versus Dordrecht's defence, projects 1.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
45%
2.24
22%
4.65
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
3.67
1.70
Cambuur xG
2.24
45%
Home win
4.65
22%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.38
Clean Sheet
18%
5.48
14%
7.19
Win to Nil
8%
12.28
5%
21.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 8.5 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.4 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.70 for Cambuur, a combined total of 3.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs Cambuur?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dordrecht come into this having played 42 games, going 10W 12D 20L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-D. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cambuur sit at 0.76 PPG from 42 outings (9W 5D 28L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dordrecht on 1.00 PPG, Cambuur on 0.76. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Dordrecht's home form reads 4W 8D 8L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Cambuur have taken 0.65 points per game from 20 outings (3W 4D 13L).
Goals in Recent Form
Dordrecht are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.07 scored and 2.02 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Blended
Cambuur
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and Cambuur in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 10W 12D 20L in their last 42 games (1.00 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 9W 5D 28L in their last 42 (0.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or Cambuur away?
Dordrecht's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 1.00 PPG; Cambuur away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Oct 2023, when Dordrecht won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dordrecht's record when hosting Cambuur specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Dordrecht
2
Draws
1
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Cambuur?
From 6 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 3, Cambuur have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Cambuur 1-1 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and Cambuur?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 45%, Cambuur 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Dordrecht and 60% for Cambuur. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dordrecht keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Dordrecht have failed to score in 35% of games; Cambuur in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play Cambuur?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Dordrecht's recent matches and 50% of Cambuur's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dordrecht vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Dordrecht's matches and 60% of Cambuur's.
Do Dordrecht and Cambuur tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dordrecht run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Cambuur.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht beat Cambuur 5-2 at Matchoholic Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.97 xG and Cambuur 1.70 xG, a combined 3.67. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Dordrecht beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 0.93 / defence 1.13 against Cambuur attack 1.08 / defence 1.36, drawn from 46/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 45% | Draw 22% | Cambuur 34%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 62%, Cambuur 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Cambuur's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dordrecht 1.00 PPG, Cambuur 0.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dordrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Dordrecht (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm. Cambuur (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 2.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.