Brescia 1-2 Bari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Brescia take on Bari.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Mario Rigamonti plays host to Brescia versus Bari in Serie B (matchday 11). Kick-off: Sunday 29 October 2023 at 15:15 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Brescia have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters, Brescia have posted 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Bari's record over their last 10 games: 1W 8D 1L (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bari's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Brescia, 1.10 for Bari — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Bari edge it 2 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 5.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 25 Feb 2023, ended Brescia 0–2 Bari — a Bari win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Brescia — key trading statistics (last 48 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Bari — key trading statistics (last 48 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 73%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brescia 46% versus Bari 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Brescia 29% | Bari 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brescia 0.78 xG and Bari 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brescia attack 0.762 / defence 0.887 | Bari attack 0.909 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.081 / away 1.194. Brescia's attack rating of 0.762 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.78. Data: built from Brescia's last 46 games and Bari's last 48.
Result probabilities: Brescia 26% | Draw 38% | Bari 36%. Fair-value odds: Brescia 3.82 | Draw 2.65 | Bari 2.77. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS Yes probability 36% | Total xG 1.75. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.75 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 64% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 26% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.75 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 75% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Brescia's last 10 home games and Bari's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Brescia 50% (last 10 home games) | Bari 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brescia vs Bari | Competition: Serie B, matchday 11 | Venue: Stadio Mario Rigamonti • Kick-off: Sunday 29 October 2023 at 15:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brescia 26% | Draw 38% | Bari 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% (Under 75%) | BTTS Yes 36% (No 64%) | xG Brescia 0.78 / Bari 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Brescia attack 0.762 / def 0.887 | Bari attack 0.909 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.081 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Brescia xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Bari xG
36%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Brescia vs Bari FAQs
What time does Brescia vs Bari kick off?
Brescia vs Bari kicked off at 15:15 UK time on Sunday 29 October 2023 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What was the final score in Brescia vs Bari?
Brescia 1 - 2 Bari.
Where is Brescia vs Bari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What competition is Brescia vs Bari part of?
Brescia vs Bari is a Serie B fixture (matchday 11) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Brescia vs Bari?
Our statistical model gives Brescia a 26% chance of winning, Bari a 36% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Brescia vs Bari?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Brescia and Bari will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (64%).
Will Brescia vs Bari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (75%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Brescia's attack rating (0.76) and Bari's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 0.78 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bari's attack (0.91x) against Brescia's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from Brescia's last 46 games and Bari's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
26%
3.82
38%
2.65
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.8%
Away win
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Brescia xG
Total xG
1.75
0.96
Bari xG
3.82
26%
Home win
2.65
38%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.79
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
46%
2.19
Win to Nil
10%
10.02
16%
6.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.4 | 16.8 | 8.1 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.2 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Brescia vs Bari Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Brescia vs Bari?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.2%.
How many goals are Brescia and Bari expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Brescia and 0.96 for Bari, a combined total of 1.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Brescia vs Bari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Brescia come into this having played 48 games, going 12W 18D 18L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-W-L.
On the other side, Bari sit at 1.54 PPG from 48 outings (18W 20D 10L), a run that reads D-L-D-D-D across their last five.
Bari carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Brescia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Brescia's home form reads 6W 10D 8L across their last 24 home games, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Bari have taken 1.58 points per game from their last 24 away games (10W 8D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bari come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Brescia are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Bari are on 1.27 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Bari in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brescia
Blended
Bari
Blended
Brescia (Home) vs Bari (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Brescia
Blended
Bari
Blended
❓ Brescia vs Bari Form FAQs
What form are Brescia and Bari in coming into this match?
Brescia have gone 12W 18D 18L in their last 48 games (1.12 PPG), while Bari have gone 18W 20D 10L in their last 48 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brescia at home or Bari away?
Bari's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brescia at home: 1.17 PPG; Bari away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Brescia or Bari been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brescia have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Bari in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 18 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bari won Bari 6-2 Brescia on 1 Oct 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brescia have gone 0W 1D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Bari — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Brescia
2
Draws
4
Bari
Recent Meetings
❓ Brescia vs Bari H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Bari?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Brescia have won 0, Bari have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Brescia and Bari last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 January 2025: Bari 2-2 Brescia.
Who has won more matches between Brescia and Bari?
Bari have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Brescia see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brescia 50%, Bari 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Brescia and 25% for Bari.
On the defensive side: Bari in 38%; Brescia have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brescia home games / Bari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Brescia vs Bari Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Brescia and Bari matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Brescia's recent matches and 46% of Bari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Brescia and Bari matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Brescia's recent games and 25% of Bari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brescia and Bari matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 50% of Brescia's recent matches and 67% of Bari's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bari edge out Brescia 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bari beat Brescia 1-2 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brescia 0.78 xG and Bari 0.96 xG, a combined 1.75. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Bari outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brescia attack 0.76 / defence 0.89 against Bari attack 0.91 / defence 0.95, drawn from 46/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brescia 26% | Draw 38% | Bari 36%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Bari win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brescia 29%, Bari 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brescia's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Bari's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bari arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 1.12. That form edge translated into the three points. Brescia (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bari (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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