Cittadella 1-2 Cremonese – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Cremonese at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cittadella face Cremonese.

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Full Analysis

Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato plays host to Cittadella versus Cremonese in Serie B (matchday 11). Kick-off: Friday 27 October 2023 at 20:30 UK time.

Form

Cittadella (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Cittadella have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Cremonese have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Cremonese have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Cittadella against 1.30 for Cremonese. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Cremonese edge it 2 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 12 Feb 2022, ended Cittadella 0–2 Cremonese — a Cremonese win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

Cittadella half-time and goal-timing data (last 48 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

Cremonese half-time and goal-timing data (last 48 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cittadella 46% versus Cremonese 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cittadella 38% | Cremonese 48%). Note also that Cremonese surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Cittadella recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 32% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cittadella 1.08 xG and Cremonese 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cittadella attack 0.946 / defence 1.095 | Cremonese attack 1.210 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.090 / away 1.174. Cremonese have an above-average attack rating of 1.210, which lifts their away xG to 1.56. Data: built from Cittadella's last 48 games and Cremonese's last 10.

Result probabilities: Cittadella 24% | Draw 30% | Cremonese 46%. Fair-value odds: Cittadella 4.18 | Draw 3.33 | Cremonese 2.17. Cremonese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Cremonese as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cremonese if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 51% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Cittadella 30% (last 10 home games) | Cremonese 70% (last 10 away games).

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