Sudtirol 0-0 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Parma at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sudtirol vs Parma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Parma travel to Stadio Marco Druso to take on Sudtirol in Serie B (matchday 32). The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 April 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Sudtirol have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Sudtirol at home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Parma stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Parma's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 road games (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Parma are 0.60 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Sudtirol, 1 for Parma and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 5 Nov 2023, ended Sudtirol 0–2 Parma — a Parma win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Sudtirol trading profile (last 71 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games).
Parma trading profile (last 71 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 49% versus Parma 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sudtirol 37% | Parma 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.07 xG and Parma 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.935 / defence 0.894 | Parma attack 1.253 / defence 0.899. League average goals — home 1.277 / away 1.239. Parma have an above-average attack rating of 1.253, which lifts their away xG to 1.39. Data: built from Sudtirol's last 69 games and Parma's last 69.
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 28% | Draw 29% | Parma 43%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 3.57 | Draw 3.46 | Parma 2.32. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Parma as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Parma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Sudtirol 30% (last 10 home games) | Parma 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Parma | Competition: Serie B, matchday 32 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Saturday 6 April 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 28% | Draw 29% | Parma 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Sudtirol 1.07 / Parma 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 0.935 / def 0.894 | Parma attack 1.253 / def 0.899 | league avg home 1.277 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Parma (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Parma xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sudtirol vs Parma FAQs
What time does Sudtirol vs Parma kick off?
Sudtirol vs Parma kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Stadio Marco Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Parma?
Sudtirol 0 - 0 Parma.
Where is Sudtirol vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Parma part of?
Sudtirol vs Parma is a Serie B fixture (matchday 32) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 28% chance of winning, Parma a 43% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Sudtirol and Parma will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Sudtirol vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sudtirol's attack at 0.94x the league average against Parma's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Parma's attack versus Sudtirol's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sudtirol's last 69 games and Parma's last 69 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.2%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
28%
3.57
29%
3.46
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.46
1.39
Parma xG
3.57
28%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
7%
14.29
15%
6.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 11.8 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.8 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sudtirol vs Parma Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Sudtirol and 1.39 for Parma, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sudtirol's recent record stands at 26W 24D 21L from 71 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-L in the last five.
Parma, meanwhile, have gone 36W 19D 16L across 71 games — 1.79 PPG, with D-W-W-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sudtirol on 1.44 PPG, Parma on 1.79. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sudtirol have managed 14W 13D 8L from their last 35 home games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Parma's away record stands at 16W 10D 9L across their last 35 away games, a 1.66 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Sudtirol are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.51 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Last 71 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Current Season
Parma
Current Season
Sudtirol (Home) vs Parma (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sudtirol
Current Season
Parma
Current Season
❓ Sudtirol vs Parma Form FAQs
What form are Sudtirol and Parma in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 26W 24D 21L in their last 71 games (1.44 PPG), while Parma have gone 36W 19D 16L in their last 71 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Parma away?
Parma's away record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.57 PPG; Parma away: 1.66 PPG.
Have Sudtirol or Parma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sudtirol have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Parma in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2022. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 6 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sudtirol's record when hosting Parma specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Sudtirol
2
Draws
1
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Sudtirol vs Parma H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Parma?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Sudtirol have won 1, Parma have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Parma last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 April 2024: Sudtirol 0-0 Parma.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 49%, Parma 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Sudtirol) and 51% (Parma).
On the defensive side: Sudtirol keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Parma in 31%; Sudtirol have failed to score in 26% of games; Parma in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sudtirol vs Parma Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sudtirol and Parma matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Sudtirol's recent matches and 51% of Parma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sudtirol and Parma matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Sudtirol's recent games and 51% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Parma matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Sudtirol's recent matches and 74% of Parma's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sudtirol's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 32, as Sudtirol and Parma drew 0-0 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.07 xG and Parma 1.39 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sudtirol fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Parma landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 0.94 / defence 0.89 against Parma attack 1.25 / defence 0.90, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 28% | Draw 29% | Parma 43%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 37%, Parma 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Parma's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.44 PPG, Parma 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sudtirol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Parma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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