Como 2-0 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Como at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Como face Sudtirol.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Como host Sudtirol at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia in Serie B (matchday 31). Kick-off is Monday 1 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Como have gone 5W 2D 3L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Como's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sudtirol — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Sudtirol's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Como) versus 1.50 (Sudtirol). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Como's games and 90% of Sudtirol's (from Como's last 10 home games and Sudtirol's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Como have won 1, Sudtirol 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.7 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 3 Dec 2023, ended Como 1–0 Sudtirol — a Como win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Como in-play tendencies (last 68 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Sudtirol in-play tendencies (last 68 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Como 52% versus Sudtirol 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Como 46% | Sudtirol 35%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Como surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Sudtirol have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 56% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Como 1.74 xG and Sudtirol 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Como attack 1.207 / defence 0.891 | Sudtirol attack 1.023 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 1.258 / away 1.210. Data: built from Como's last 68 games and Sudtirol's last 68.
Result probabilities: Como 51% | Draw 26% | Sudtirol 23%. Fair-value odds: Como 1.95 | Draw 3.88 | Sudtirol 4.35. Como hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Como at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Como offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Como's last 10 home games and Sudtirol's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Como 60% (last 10 home games) | Sudtirol 90% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Como vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, matchday 31 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia • Kick-off: Monday 1 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Como 51% | Draw 26% | Sudtirol 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Como 1.74 / Sudtirol 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Como attack 1.207 / def 0.891 | Sudtirol attack 1.023 / def 1.145 | league avg home 1.258 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: Como (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Como xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Sudtirol xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Como vs Sudtirol FAQs
What time does Como vs Sudtirol kick off?
Como vs Sudtirol kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Monday 1 April 2024 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What was the final score in Como vs Sudtirol?
Como 2 - 0 Sudtirol.
Where is Como vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What competition is Como vs Sudtirol part of?
Como vs Sudtirol is a Serie B fixture (matchday 31) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Como vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Como a 51% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Como the favourite.
Will both teams score in Como vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Como and Sudtirol will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Como vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Como's attack rating (1.21) and Sudtirol's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.74 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sudtirol's attack versus Como's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Como's last 68 games and Sudtirol's last 68 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Como Win
51%
1.95
26%
3.88
23%
4.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Como xG
Total xG
2.84
1.10
Sudtirol xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
4.35
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
18%
5.69
Win to Nil
17%
5.88
4%
24.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.2 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Como vs Sudtirol Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Como vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Como and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Como and 1.10 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Como vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 68 outings, Como have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 26W 24D 18L record — D-W-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Sudtirol's form line: 26W 24D 18L from 68 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Como on 1.50 PPG, Sudtirol on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Como have posted 1.85 PPG from their last 33 home games (17W 10D 6L).
On the road, Sudtirol have gone 12W 11D 10L from their last 33 away games — 1.42 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Como come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Como are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.15 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Sudtirol in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Como
Current Season
Sudtirol
Current Season
Como (Home) vs Sudtirol (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Como
Current Season
Sudtirol
Current Season
❓ Como vs Sudtirol Form FAQs
What form are Como and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Como have gone 26W 24D 18L in their last 68 games (1.50 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 26W 24D 18L in their last 68 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Como at home or Sudtirol away?
Como's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Como at home: 1.85 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Como or Sudtirol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Como have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Sudtirol in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from September 2022. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 1 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Como have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Como's record when hosting Sudtirol specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Como
1
Draws
1
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Como vs Sudtirol H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Como and Sudtirol?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Como have won 2, Sudtirol have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Como and Sudtirol last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 April 2024: Como 2-0 Sudtirol.
Who has won more matches between Como and Sudtirol?
Como have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 62% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Como 54%, Sudtirol 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Como) and 36% (Sudtirol).
On the defensive side: Como keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Sudtirol in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Como home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Como vs Sudtirol Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Como and Sudtirol matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Como's recent matches and 52% of Sudtirol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Como and Sudtirol matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Como's recent games and 36% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Como and Sudtirol matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Como's recent matches and 64% of Sudtirol's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Como cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Sudtirol.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Como beat Sudtirol 2-0 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Como 1.74 xG and Sudtirol 1.10 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Sudtirol landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Como attack 1.21 / defence 0.89 against Sudtirol attack 1.02 / defence 1.15, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Como 51% | Draw 26% | Sudtirol 23%, with Como to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Como 46%, Sudtirol 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Como's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sudtirol's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Como 1.50 PPG, Sudtirol 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Como win broke the near-deadlock. Como (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Sudtirol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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