Brescia 3-1 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brescia at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Brescia face Pisa.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Brescia welcome Pisa to Stadio Mario Rigamonti in Serie B (matchday 32). Kick-off is Saturday 6 April 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Brescia have gone 3W 4D 3L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D W L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Brescia's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Pisa — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Pisa's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Brescia) versus 1.40 (Pisa). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Brescia have won 0, Pisa 2, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.6 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 25 Nov 2023, ended Brescia 1–1 Pisa — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Brescia trading profile (last 69 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Pisa trading profile (last 69 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brescia 54% versus Pisa 59%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Brescia 32% | Pisa 46%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Brescia surrender their half-time lead 31% of the time, while Pisa have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brescia 1.43 xG and Pisa 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brescia attack 1.014 / defence 0.897 | Pisa attack 0.984 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.277 / away 1.239. Data: built from Brescia's last 69 games and Pisa's last 69.
Result probabilities: Brescia 44% | Draw 28% | Pisa 28%. Fair-value odds: Brescia 2.29 | Draw 3.52 | Pisa 3.59. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Brescia are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Brescia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Brescia 50% (last 10 home games) | Pisa 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brescia vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, matchday 32 | Venue: Stadio Mario Rigamonti • Kick-off: Saturday 6 April 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brescia 44% | Draw 28% | Pisa 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Brescia 1.43 / Pisa 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Brescia attack 1.014 / def 0.897 | Pisa attack 0.984 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.277 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Brescia (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Brescia xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Pisa xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Brescia vs Pisa FAQs
What time does Brescia vs Pisa kick off?
Brescia vs Pisa kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What was the final score in Brescia vs Pisa?
Brescia 3 - 1 Pisa.
Where is Brescia vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What competition is Brescia vs Pisa part of?
Brescia vs Pisa is a Serie B fixture (matchday 32) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Brescia vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Brescia a 44% chance of winning, Pisa a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Brescia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brescia vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Brescia and Pisa will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Brescia vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Brescia's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Pisa's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Brescia's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Brescia's last 69 games and Pisa's last 69 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brescia Win
44%
2.29
28%
3.52
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Brescia xG
Total xG
2.52
1.09
Pisa xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
15%
6.83
7%
15.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.5 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Brescia vs Pisa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Brescia vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Brescia and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Brescia and 1.09 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Brescia vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Brescia's recent record stands at 18W 26D 25L from 69 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-W in the last five.
Pisa, meanwhile, have gone 21W 24D 24L across 69 games — 1.26 PPG, with D-W-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Brescia on 1.16 PPG, Pisa on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Brescia have managed 10W 13D 11L from their last 34 home games — 1.26 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pisa's away record stands at 9W 13D 12L across their last 34 away games, a 1.18 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Brescia are averaging 1.01 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.28 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 69 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brescia
Current Season
Pisa
Current Season
Brescia (Home) vs Pisa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Brescia
Current Season
Pisa
Current Season
❓ Brescia vs Pisa Form FAQs
What form are Brescia and Pisa in coming into this match?
Brescia have gone 18W 26D 25L in their last 69 games (1.16 PPG), while Pisa have gone 21W 24D 24L in their last 69 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brescia at home or Pisa away?
Brescia's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brescia at home: 1.26 PPG; Pisa away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Brescia or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brescia have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Pisa in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from November 2021. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 25 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Pisa have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 Dec 2022, when Pisa won Pisa 3-0 Brescia.
Brescia's record when hosting Pisa specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Brescia
3
Draws
4
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Brescia vs Pisa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Pisa?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Brescia have won 1, Pisa have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Brescia and Pisa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 April 2025: Brescia 1-2 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Brescia and Pisa?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Brescia see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Pisa see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brescia 50%, Pisa 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 24% for Brescia and 38% for Pisa.
On the defensive side: Pisa in 35%; Brescia have failed to score in 32% of games; Pisa in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brescia home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Brescia vs Pisa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Brescia and Pisa matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Brescia's recent matches and 53% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Brescia and Pisa matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 24% of Brescia's recent games and 38% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Brescia cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Pisa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brescia beat Pisa 3-1 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brescia 1.43 xG and Pisa 1.09 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Brescia beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brescia attack 1.01 / defence 0.90 against Pisa attack 0.98 / defence 1.10, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brescia 44% | Draw 28% | Pisa 28%, with Brescia to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brescia 32%, Pisa 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brescia's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Pisa's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brescia 1.16 PPG, Pisa 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brescia win broke the near-deadlock. Brescia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm. Pisa (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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