Spezia 0-1 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cremonese at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Spezia vs Cremonese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Spezia host Cremonese at Stadio Alberto Picco in Serie B (matchday 21). Kick-off is Saturday 20 January 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Spezia stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Spezia's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 5D 4L (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Cremonese — last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Cremonese's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Cremonese are 1.30 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Spezia, 2 for Cremonese and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 5 Nov 2023, ended Spezia 0–3 Cremonese — a Cremonese win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Spezia trading profile (last 58 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 67%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Cremonese trading profile (last 58 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 47% versus Cremonese 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 52% | Cremonese 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 0.86 xG and Cremonese 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 0.666 / defence 0.906 | Cremonese attack 1.032 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.188. Spezia's attack rating of 0.666 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.86. Data: built from Spezia's last 20 games and Cremonese's last 20.
Result probabilities: Spezia 27% | Draw 33% | Cremonese 40%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 3.72 | Draw 3.00 | Cremonese 2.51. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cremonese as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cremonese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.98 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Spezia 40% (last 10 home games) | Cremonese 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, matchday 21 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Saturday 20 January 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 27% | Draw 33% | Cremonese 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% (Under 68%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Spezia 0.86 / Cremonese 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 0.666 / def 0.906 | Cremonese attack 1.032 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Cremonese xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Spezia vs Cremonese FAQs
What time does Spezia vs Cremonese kick off?
Spezia vs Cremonese kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 20 January 2024 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Cremonese?
Spezia 0 - 1 Cremonese.
Where is Spezia vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Cremonese part of?
Spezia vs Cremonese is a Serie B fixture (matchday 21) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 27% chance of winning, Cremonese a 40% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Spezia and Cremonese will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Spezia vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (68%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Spezia's attack rating (0.67) and Cremonese's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 0.86 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cremonese's attack versus Spezia's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Spezia's last 20 games and Cremonese's last 20 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
27%
3.72
33%
3.00
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Spezia xG
Total xG
1.98
1.11
Cremonese xG
3.72
27%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
9%
11.29
17%
5.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 15.4 | 8.6 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.3 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Spezia vs Cremonese Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Spezia and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Spezia and 1.11 for Cremonese, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Spezia's recent record stands at 8W 21D 29L from 58 games, a 0.78 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-L in the last five.
Cremonese, meanwhile, have gone 15W 17D 26L across 58 games — 1.07 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Spezia on 0.78 PPG, Cremonese on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Spezia have managed 4W 13D 11L from their last 28 home games — 0.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cremonese's away record stands at 6W 10D 12L across their last 28 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Spezia are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.12 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Blended
Cremonese
Blended
Spezia (Home) vs Cremonese (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Spezia
Blended
Cremonese
Blended
❓ Spezia vs Cremonese Form FAQs
What form are Spezia and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 8W 21D 29L in their last 58 games (0.78 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 15W 17D 26L in their last 58 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Cremonese away?
Cremonese's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 0.89 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2022. They cover more than one competition — Serie A, Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 1 June 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 5 Nov 2023, when Cremonese won Cremonese 3-0 Spezia.
Spezia's record when hosting Cremonese specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Spezia
3
Draws
5
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Spezia vs Cremonese H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Cremonese?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Spezia have won 0, Cremonese have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Cremonese last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 June 2025: Spezia 2-3 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Spezia and Cremonese?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Spezia see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 46%, Cremonese 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Spezia) and 57% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: Spezia have failed to score in 46% of games; Cremonese in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Spezia vs Cremonese Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Spezia and Cremonese matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Spezia's games and 64% of Cremonese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Spezia and Cremonese matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Spezia's recent games and 57% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spezia and Cremonese matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 57% of Spezia's recent matches and 61% of Cremonese's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cremonese edge out Spezia 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese beat Spezia 0-1 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 0.86 xG and Cremonese 1.11 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Spezia fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 0.67 / defence 0.91 against Cremonese attack 1.03 / defence 1.01, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 27% | Draw 33% | Cremonese 40%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 52%, Cremonese 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cremonese's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spezia 0.78 PPG, Cremonese 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cremonese win broke the near-deadlock. Spezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward. Cremonese (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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