Cremonese 1-0 Brescia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cremonese at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cremonese vs Brescia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cremonese and Brescia meet at Stadio Giovanni Zini in Serie B, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 27 January 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Cremonese (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cremonese's home record at Stadio Giovanni Zini: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Giovanni Zini. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.70 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Giovanni Zini this season.
Brescia have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Brescia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brescia away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Cremonese's 2.20 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Brescia's 1.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Cremonese 2W, Brescia 1W, 0D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2023, ended 3–0 with Cremonese winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Cremonese — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Brescia — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 49% versus Brescia 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cremonese 48% | Brescia 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.20 xG and Brescia 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.957 / defence 0.767 | Brescia attack 1.055 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.211. Cremonese's defence rating of 0.767 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 21 Cremonese games / 59 Brescia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 40% | Draw 32% | Brescia 29%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 2.50 | Draw 3.12 | Brescia 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cremonese are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cremonese if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.18 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Cremonese 30% | Brescia 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Brescia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Jan 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 40% | Draw 32% | Brescia 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Cremonese 1.20 / Brescia 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.957 / def 0.767 | Brescia attack 1.055 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Brescia xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Brescia kick off?
Cremonese vs Brescia kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 27 January 2024 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Brescia?
Cremonese 1 - 0 Brescia.
Where is Cremonese vs Brescia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Brescia part of?
Cremonese vs Brescia is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Brescia?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 40% chance of winning, Brescia a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Brescia?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Cremonese and Brescia will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Brescia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Brescia?
Record (3 meetings): Cremonese 2W | Draws 0 | Brescia 1W.
What form are Cremonese and Brescia in?
Cremonese (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Brescia (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Cremonese's attack rating (0.96) and Brescia's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Brescia's attack (1.05x) against Cremonese's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 21/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
40%
2.52
32%
3.14
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.18
0.98
Brescia xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
15%
6.73
9%
11.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 11.1 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.3 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Brescia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Brescia expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Cremonese and 0.98 for Brescia, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Brescia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cremonese come into this having played 59 games, going 16W 17D 26L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-W. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Brescia sit at 1.14 PPG from 59 outings (15W 22D 22L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Brescia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Cremonese against 1.14 for Brescia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Cremonese's home form reads 9W 7D 13L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Brescia have taken 1.10 points per game from 29 outings (7W 11D 11L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cremonese are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Brescia are on 0.98 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Blended
Brescia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Brescia in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 16W 17D 26L in their last 59 games (1.10 PPG), while Brescia have gone 15W 22D 22L in their last 59 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Brescia away?
Cremonese's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 1.17 PPG; Brescia away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cremonese won 0-3 on 12 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cremonese have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Brescia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Cremonese
1
Draws
2
Brescia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Brescia?
From 6 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 3, Brescia have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Brescia last play each other?
They last met on 29 December 2024, when Cremonese 1-1 Brescia.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Brescia?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 34%, Brescia 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Cremonese) and 41% (Brescia).
On the defensive side: Cremonese keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Cremonese have failed to score in 38% of games; Brescia in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Brescia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Brescia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 34% of Cremonese's recent matches and 55% of Brescia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cremonese vs Brescia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Cremonese's recent games and 41% of Brescia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Brescia tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Brescia in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cremonese edge out Brescia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese beat Brescia 1-0 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.20 xG and Brescia 0.98 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Brescia landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.96 / defence 0.77 against Brescia attack 1.05 / defence 0.93, drawn from 21/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 40% | Draw 32% | Brescia 29%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 48%, Brescia 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Brescia's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cremonese 1.10 PPG, Brescia 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cremonese win broke the near-deadlock. Cremonese (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Brescia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.