Sampdoria 0-3 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Parma at 53% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sampdoria face Parma.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Parma travel to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris to take on Sampdoria in Serie B (matchday 21). The game is scheduled for Friday 19 January 2024 at 19:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Sampdoria stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sampdoria at home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Parma — last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Parma away from home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sampdoria 1.60 PPG, Parma 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Sampdoria's games and 60% of Parma's (from Sampdoria's last 10 home games and Parma's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Sampdoria, 0 for Parma and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Sep 2023, ended Sampdoria 1–1 Parma — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Sampdoria in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Parma in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 52% versus Parma 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 45% | Parma 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.03 xG and Parma 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.947 / defence 1.184 | Parma attack 1.238 / defence 0.841. League average goals — home 1.295 / away 1.178. Parma have an above-average attack rating of 1.238, which lifts their away xG to 1.73. Data: built from Sampdoria's last 20 games and Parma's last 58.
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 21% | Draw 26% | Parma 53%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 4.67 | Draw 3.84 | Parma 1.90. Parma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Parma at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Parma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sampdoria's last 10 home games and Parma's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sampdoria 60% (last 10 home games) | Parma 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Parma | Competition: Serie B, matchday 21 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Friday 19 January 2024 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 21% | Draw 26% | Parma 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Sampdoria 1.03 / Parma 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 0.947 / def 1.184 | Parma attack 1.238 / def 0.841 | league avg home 1.295 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Parma (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Parma xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sampdoria vs Parma FAQs
What time does Sampdoria vs Parma kick off?
Sampdoria vs Parma kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Friday 19 January 2024 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Parma?
Sampdoria 0 - 3 Parma.
Where is Sampdoria vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Parma part of?
Sampdoria vs Parma is a Serie B fixture (matchday 21) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 21% chance of winning, Parma a 53% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Sampdoria and Parma will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sampdoria vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sampdoria's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Parma's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. The same calculation in reverse, Parma's attack versus Sampdoria's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sampdoria's last 20 games and Parma's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
21%
4.67
26%
3.84
53%
1.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.76
1.73
Parma xG
4.67
21%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
1.90
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
18%
5.62
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
4%
26.25
19%
5.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 11.0 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.3 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sampdoria vs Parma Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Sampdoria and 1.73 for Parma, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sampdoria's recent record stands at 10W 14D 34L from 58 games, a 0.76 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-L in the last five.
Parma, meanwhile, have gone 29W 15D 14L across 58 games — 1.76 PPG, with D-D-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Parma by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sampdoria heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sampdoria have managed 5W 8D 15L from their last 28 home games — 0.82 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Parma's away record stands at 12W 8D 8L across their last 28 away games, a 1.57 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Parma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sampdoria are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.48 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Parma in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Blended
Parma
Blended
Sampdoria (Home) vs Parma (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sampdoria
Blended
Parma
Blended
❓ Sampdoria vs Parma Form FAQs
What form are Sampdoria and Parma in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 10W 14D 34L in their last 58 games (0.76 PPG), while Parma have gone 29W 15D 14L in their last 58 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Parma away?
Parma's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 0.82 PPG; Parma away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Sampdoria or Parma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sampdoria have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Parma in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2023. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 19 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Sampdoria
1
Draws
1
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Sampdoria vs Parma H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Parma?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Sampdoria have won 0, Parma have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Parma last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 January 2024: Sampdoria 0-3 Parma.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Parma?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 50%, Parma 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Sampdoria) and 46% (Parma).
On the defensive side: Parma in 32%; Sampdoria have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sampdoria vs Parma Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sampdoria and Parma matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sampdoria's recent matches and 50% of Parma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sampdoria and Parma matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Sampdoria's recent games and 46% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sampdoria and Parma matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Sampdoria's recent matches and 71% of Parma's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Parma run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Sampdoria.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma beat Sampdoria 0-3 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.03 xG and Parma 1.73 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Sampdoria fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Parma outscored their 1.73 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.95 / defence 1.18 against Parma attack 1.24 / defence 0.84, drawn from 20/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 21% | Draw 26% | Parma 53%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 45%, Parma 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Parma's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Parma arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 0.76. Form held, and they took the win. Sampdoria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Parma (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.54 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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