Parma 1-1 Ascoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Parma at 57% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Parma vs Ascoli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Parma and Ascoli meet at Stadio Ennio Tardini in Serie B (matchday 20). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 14 January 2024 at 15:15 UK time.
Current Form
Parma's record over their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). Last five: W D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Parma have gone 6W 4D 0L in their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ascoli (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Ascoli's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.30 in Parma's favour (2.10 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 2 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Oct 2023, ended Parma 3–1 Ascoli — a Parma win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Parma half-time and goal-timing data (last 57 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Ascoli half-time and goal-timing data (last 57 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 47% versus Ascoli 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Parma 42% | Ascoli 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.73 xG and Ascoli 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 1.220 / defence 0.921 | Ascoli attack 0.798 / defence 1.110. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.168. Ascoli's attack rating of 0.798 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.86. Data: built from Parma's last 57 games and Ascoli's last 57.
Result probabilities: Parma 57% | Draw 26% | Ascoli 17%. Fair-value odds: Parma 1.75 | Draw 3.91 | Ascoli 5.75. The model has a clear lean to Parma (57%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Parma at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Parma 60% (last 10 home games) | Ascoli 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Ascoli | Competition: Serie B, matchday 20 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Sunday 14 January 2024 at 15:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 57% | Draw 26% | Ascoli 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Parma 1.73 / Ascoli 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 1.220 / def 0.921 | Ascoli attack 0.798 / def 1.110 | league avg home 1.278 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Parma (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Parma xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Ascoli xG
48%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Parma vs Ascoli FAQs
What time does Parma vs Ascoli kick off?
Parma vs Ascoli kicked off at 15:15 UK time on Sunday 14 January 2024 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Ascoli?
Parma 1 - 1 Ascoli.
Where is Parma vs Ascoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Ascoli part of?
Parma vs Ascoli is a Serie B fixture (matchday 20) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Ascoli?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 57% chance of winning, Ascoli a 17% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Ascoli?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Parma and Ascoli will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Parma vs Ascoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Parma's attack at 1.22x the league average against Ascoli's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ascoli's attack (0.80x) against Parma's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from Parma's last 57 games and Ascoli's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 2-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
57%
1.75
26%
3.91
17%
5.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Parma xG
Total xG
2.59
0.86
Ascoli xG
1.75
57%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
5.75
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
18%
5.64
Win to Nil
24%
4.14
3%
32.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 11.2 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.5 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Parma vs Ascoli Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Ascoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Parma and Ascoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Parma and 0.86 for Ascoli, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Ascoli?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Parma's recent record stands at 29W 14D 14L from 57 games, a 1.77 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-W in the last five.
Ascoli, meanwhile, have gone 16W 16D 25L across 57 games — 1.12 PPG, with L-L-W-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Parma by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ascoli heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Parma have managed 17W 6D 6L from their last 29 home games — 1.97 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ascoli's away record stands at 7W 8D 14L across their last 29 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Parma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Parma are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Ascoli are on 1.00 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: Parma have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Blended
Ascoli
Blended
Parma (Home) vs Ascoli (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Parma
Blended
Ascoli
Blended
❓ Parma vs Ascoli Form FAQs
What form are Parma and Ascoli in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 29W 14D 14L in their last 57 games (1.77 PPG), while Ascoli have gone 16W 16D 25L in their last 57 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Ascoli away?
Parma's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.97 PPG; Ascoli away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Parma or Ascoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Ascoli in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 14 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Parma have gone 0W 1D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Ascoli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Parma
2
Draws
2
Ascoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Parma vs Ascoli H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Ascoli?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Parma have won 2, Ascoli have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Ascoli last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 January 2024: Parma 1-1 Ascoli.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 45%, Ascoli 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Parma) and 34% (Ascoli).
On the defensive side: Parma keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Ascoli in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Ascoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Parma vs Ascoli Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Parma and Ascoli matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Parma's recent matches and 48% of Ascoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Parma and Ascoli matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Parma's recent games and 34% of Ascoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Ascoli matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Parma's recent matches and 69% of Ascoli's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Parma and Ascoli share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma and Ascoli finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.73 xG and Ascoli 0.86 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 1.22 / defence 0.92 against Ascoli attack 0.80 / defence 1.11, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 57% | Draw 26% | Ascoli 17%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 57%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 42%, Ascoli 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Ascoli's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Parma arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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