Spezia 0-2 Feralpisalo – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Spezia at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Spezia face Feralpisalo.

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Fixture Analysis

Spezia welcome Feralpisalo to Stadio Alberto Picco in Serie B (matchday 27). Kick-off is Wednesday 28 February 2024 at 19:30 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Spezia stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Spezia's form when playing at home: 2W 6D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Feralpisalo — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Feralpisalo away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Spezia 1.30 PPG, Feralpisalo 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Spezia, 0 for Feralpisalo and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 30 Sep 2023, ended Spezia 2–1 Feralpisalo — a Spezia win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Spezia in-play tendencies (last 26 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 33% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.

Feralpisalo in-play tendencies (last 26 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 50% versus Feralpisalo 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 50% | Feralpisalo 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 1.38 xG and Feralpisalo 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 0.871 / defence 1.032 | Feralpisalo attack 0.719 / defence 1.226. League average goals — home 1.288 / away 1.224. Feralpisalo's defence rating of 1.226 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Spezia's projected output up. Feralpisalo's attack rating of 0.719 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.91. Data: built from Spezia's last 26 games and Feralpisalo's last 26.

Result probabilities: Spezia 46% | Draw 31% | Feralpisalo 23%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 2.19 | Draw 3.18 | Feralpisalo 4.39. Spezia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Spezia as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spezia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Spezia's last 10 home games and Feralpisalo's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Spezia 40% (last 10 home games) | Feralpisalo 70% (last 10 away games).

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