Modena 1-2 Brescia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brescia at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Modena face Brescia.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Brescia travel to Stadio Alberto Braglia to take on Modena in Serie B (matchday 20). The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 January 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Modena stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Modena at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Brescia have recorded 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Brescia away from home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Modena 1.50 PPG, Brescia 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Modena have won 2, Brescia 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Oct 2023, ended Modena 1–0 Brescia — a Modena win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Modena trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Brescia trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 56% versus Brescia 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Modena 44% | Brescia 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.06 xG and Brescia 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 0.883 / defence 0.996 | Brescia attack 1.004 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.252 / away 1.188. Data: built from Modena's last 57 games and Brescia's last 57.
Result probabilities: Modena 31% | Draw 31% | Brescia 37%. Fair-value odds: Modena 3.21 | Draw 3.18 | Brescia 2.67. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Brescia are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Brescia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Modena's last 10 home games and Brescia's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Modena 50% (last 10 home games) | Brescia 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Brescia | Competition: Serie B, matchday 20 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Saturday 13 January 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 31% | Draw 31% | Brescia 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Modena 1.06 / Brescia 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 0.883 / def 0.996 | Brescia attack 1.004 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.252 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Brescia (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Modena xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Brescia xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Modena vs Brescia FAQs
What time does Modena vs Brescia kick off?
Modena vs Brescia kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 13 January 2024 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Brescia?
Modena 1 - 2 Brescia.
Where is Modena vs Brescia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Brescia part of?
Modena vs Brescia is a Serie B fixture (matchday 20) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Brescia?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 31% chance of winning, Brescia a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Brescia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Brescia?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Modena and Brescia will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Modena vs Brescia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Modena's attack rating (0.88) and Brescia's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Brescia's attack versus Modena's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Modena's last 57 games and Brescia's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brescia Win
31%
3.21
31%
3.18
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Modena xG
Total xG
2.25
1.19
Brescia xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
30%
3.28
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
9%
10.54
13%
7.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 12.5 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Modena vs Brescia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Brescia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Modena and Brescia expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Modena and 1.19 for Brescia, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Brescia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 57 outings, Modena have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 20W 16D 21L record — W-L-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Brescia's form line: 14W 21D 22L from 57 games, 1.11 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Modena on 1.33 PPG, Brescia on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Modena have posted 1.54 PPG from their last 28 home games (11W 10D 7L).
On the road, Brescia have gone 6W 11D 11L from their last 28 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Modena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Modena are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Brescia are on 0.96 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Blended
Brescia
Blended
Modena (Home) vs Brescia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Modena
Blended
Brescia
Blended
❓ Modena vs Brescia Form FAQs
What form are Modena and Brescia in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 20W 16D 21L in their last 57 games (1.33 PPG), while Brescia have gone 14W 21D 22L in their last 57 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Brescia away?
Modena's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.54 PPG; Brescia away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from September 2022. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 9 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Modena's record when hosting Brescia specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Modena
2
Draws
2
Brescia
Recent Meetings
❓ Modena vs Brescia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Brescia?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Modena have won 2, Brescia have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Brescia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 May 2025: Modena 2-2 Brescia.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 50%, Brescia 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Modena) and 39% (Brescia).
On the defensive side: Modena keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Modena have failed to score in 29% of games; Brescia in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Brescia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Modena vs Brescia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Modena and Brescia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Modena's recent matches and 54% of Brescia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Modena and Brescia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Modena's recent games and 39% of Brescia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Brescia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Modena's recent matches and 68% of Brescia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Brescia edge out Modena 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brescia beat Modena 1-2 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.06 xG and Brescia 1.19 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Brescia outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 0.88 / defence 1.00 against Brescia attack 1.00 / defence 0.96, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 31% | Draw 31% | Brescia 37%, with Brescia to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 44%, Brescia 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Brescia's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Modena 1.33 PPG, Brescia 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brescia win broke the near-deadlock. Modena (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Brescia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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