Modena 1-0 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Sudtirol at 37% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Modena vs Sudtirol encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Sudtirol travel to Stadio Alberto Braglia to take on Modena in Serie B (matchday 35). The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 April 2024 at 14:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Modena have gone 0W 7D 3L — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: D D D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Modena have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Sudtirol — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Sudtirol away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form points away from home here. Sudtirol's 1.60 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Modena's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Modena's last 10 home games and Sudtirol's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Modena have won 2, Sudtirol 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.7 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 26 Sep 2023, ended Modena 0–0 Sudtirol — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Modena trading profile (last 72 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).

Sudtirol trading profile (last 72 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 53%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 58% versus Sudtirol 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Modena 46% | Sudtirol 33%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.18 xG and Sudtirol 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 0.906 / defence 1.169 | Sudtirol attack 0.931 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.197 / away 1.201. Data: built from Modena's last 72 games and Sudtirol's last 72.

Result probabilities: Modena 31% | Draw 32% | Sudtirol 37%. Fair-value odds: Modena 3.23 | Draw 3.11 | Sudtirol 2.71. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Sudtirol as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sudtirol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Modena 70% (last 10 home games) | Sudtirol 80% (last 10 away games).

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