Cosenza 4-1 Bari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cosenza at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cosenza face Bari.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Bari travel to Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla to take on Cosenza in Serie B (matchday 35). The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 April 2024 at 16:15 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Cosenza stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cosenza at home: 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Bari have recorded 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bari away from home: 0W 3D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cosenza 1.00 PPG, Bari 0.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Cosenza have won 0, Bari 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.3 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 23 Dec 2023, ended Cosenza 0–0 Bari — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Cosenza in-play tendencies (last 74 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Bari in-play tendencies (last 74 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 50% versus Bari 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cosenza 38% | Bari 36%). Note also that Bari surrender HT leads in 28% of cases while Cosenza recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 1.30 xG and Bari 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 0.900 / defence 1.072 | Bari attack 0.802 / defence 1.219. League average goals — home 1.190 / away 1.182. Bari's defence rating of 1.219 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cosenza's projected output up. Data: built from Cosenza's last 72 games and Bari's last 72.
Result probabilities: Cosenza 41% | Draw 32% | Bari 27%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 2.45 | Draw 3.09 | Bari 3.74. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cosenza are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cosenza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Cosenza 70% (last 10 home games) | Bari 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Bari | Competition: Serie B, matchday 35 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Saturday 27 April 2024 at 16:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 41% | Draw 32% | Bari 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Cosenza 1.30 / Bari 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 0.900 / def 1.072 | Bari attack 0.802 / def 1.219 | league avg home 1.190 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Cosenza (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Bari xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cosenza vs Bari FAQs
What time does Cosenza vs Bari kick off?
Cosenza vs Bari kicked off at 16:15 UK time on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Bari?
Cosenza 4 - 1 Bari.
Where is Cosenza vs Bari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Bari part of?
Cosenza vs Bari is a Serie B fixture (matchday 35) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Bari?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 41% chance of winning, Bari a 27% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Cosenza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Bari?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Cosenza and Bari will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Cosenza vs Bari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cosenza's attack rating (0.90) and Bari's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bari's attack versus Cosenza's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cosenza's last 72 games and Bari's last 72 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cosenza Win
41%
2.45
32%
3.09
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Cosenza xG
Total xG
2.32
1.02
Bari xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
15%
6.76
7%
13.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 10.0 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.0 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cosenza vs Bari Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Bari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Bari expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Cosenza and 1.02 for Bari, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Bari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cosenza come into this having played 74 games, going 19W 26D 29L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-W.
On the other side, Bari sit at 1.39 PPG from 74 outings (25W 28D 21L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cosenza on 1.12 PPG, Bari on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Cosenza's home form reads 12W 13D 12L across their last 37 home games, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Bari have taken 1.30 points per game from their last 37 away games (12W 12D 13L).
Goals in Recent Form
Cosenza are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Bari are on 1.22 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 74 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Current Season
Bari
Current Season
Cosenza (Home) vs Bari (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cosenza
Current Season
Bari
Current Season
❓ Cosenza vs Bari Form FAQs
What form are Cosenza and Bari in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 19W 26D 29L in their last 74 games (1.12 PPG), while Bari have gone 25W 28D 21L in their last 74 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Bari away?
Cosenza's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 1.32 PPG; Bari away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from September 2022. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 1 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 27 Apr 2024, when Cosenza won Cosenza 4-1 Bari.
Cosenza's record when hosting Bari specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Cosenza
2
Draws
2
Bari
Recent Meetings
❓ Cosenza vs Bari H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Bari?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Cosenza have won 2, Bari have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Bari last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 May 2025: Cosenza 1-0 Bari.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 42% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 60%, Bari 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Cosenza) and 35% (Bari).
On the defensive side: Cosenza keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Bari in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Bari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cosenza vs Bari Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cosenza and Bari matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Cosenza's games and 51% of Bari's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Cosenza and Bari matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Cosenza's recent games and 35% of Bari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cosenza and Bari matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Cosenza's recent matches and 65% of Bari's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Cosenza run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Bari.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cosenza beat Bari 4-1 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 1.30 xG and Bari 1.02 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Cosenza beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 0.90 / defence 1.07 against Bari attack 0.80 / defence 1.22, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 41% | Draw 32% | Bari 27%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 38%, Bari 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Bari's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cosenza 1.12 PPG, Bari 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cosenza win broke the near-deadlock. Cosenza (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm. Bari (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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