Ascoli 0-0 Modena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ascoli at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Ascoli face Modena.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca plays host to Ascoli versus Modena in Serie B (matchday 34). Kick-off: Saturday 20 April 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Ascoli have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Ascoli's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 6D 2L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Modena's record over their last 10 games: 0W 7D 3L (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Modena have gone 0W 7D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Ascoli, 0.70 for Modena — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Modena edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.7 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 26 Aug 2023, ended Ascoli 0–1 Modena — a Modena win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Ascoli half-time and goal-timing data (last 71 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Modena half-time and goal-timing data (last 71 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ascoli 49% versus Modena 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ascoli 38% | Modena 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ascoli 1.20 xG and Modena 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ascoli attack 0.876 / defence 0.822 | Modena attack 0.969 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.231 / away 1.215. Data: built from Ascoli's last 71 games and Modena's last 71.
Result probabilities: Ascoli 39% | Draw 33% | Modena 28%. Fair-value odds: Ascoli 2.54 | Draw 3.06 | Modena 3.58. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ascoli at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ascoli if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.16 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Ascoli 50% (last 10 home games) | Modena 80% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ascoli vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, matchday 34 | Venue: Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca • Kick-off: Saturday 20 April 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ascoli 39% | Draw 33% | Modena 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Ascoli 1.20 / Modena 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Ascoli attack 0.876 / def 0.822 | Modena attack 0.969 / def 1.108 | league avg home 1.231 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Ascoli (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Ascoli xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Modena xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ascoli vs Modena FAQs
What time does Ascoli vs Modena kick off?
Ascoli vs Modena kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What was the final score in Ascoli vs Modena?
Ascoli 0 - 0 Modena.
Where is Ascoli vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What competition is Ascoli vs Modena part of?
Ascoli vs Modena is a Serie B fixture (matchday 34) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ascoli vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Ascoli a 39% chance of winning, Modena a 28% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Ascoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ascoli vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Ascoli and Modena will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Ascoli vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Ascoli's attack rating (0.88) and Modena's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Modena's attack (0.97x) against Ascoli's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from Ascoli's last 71 games and Modena's last 71 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ascoli Win
39%
2.54
33%
3.06
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Ascoli xG
Total xG
2.16
0.97
Modena xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
15%
6.69
8%
11.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 11.1 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.3 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ascoli vs Modena Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ascoli vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Ascoli and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Ascoli and 0.97 for Modena, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Ascoli vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ascoli's recent record stands at 19W 23D 29L from 71 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-D in the last five.
Modena, meanwhile, have gone 21W 24D 26L across 71 games — 1.23 PPG, with L-D-D-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Ascoli against 1.23 for Modena. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Ascoli have managed 10W 13D 12L from their last 35 home games — 1.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Modena's away record stands at 9W 11D 15L across their last 35 away games, a 1.09 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ascoli are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.18 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 71 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ascoli
Current Season
Modena
Current Season
Ascoli (Home) vs Modena (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ascoli
Current Season
Modena
Current Season
❓ Ascoli vs Modena Form FAQs
What form are Ascoli and Modena in coming into this match?
Ascoli have gone 19W 23D 29L in their last 71 games (1.13 PPG), while Modena have gone 21W 24D 26L in their last 71 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ascoli at home or Modena away?
Ascoli's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ascoli at home: 1.23 PPG; Modena away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 20 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ascoli have gone 0W 1D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Modena — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Ascoli
1
Draws
2
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Ascoli vs Modena H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Modena?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Ascoli have won 1, Modena have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Ascoli and Modena last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 April 2024: Ascoli 0-0 Modena.
Who has won more matches between Ascoli and Modena?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ascoli 49%, Modena 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Ascoli) and 57% (Modena).
On the defensive side: Ascoli keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Ascoli have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ascoli home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ascoli vs Modena Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ascoli and Modena matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 49% of Ascoli's games and 66% of Modena's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Ascoli and Modena matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Ascoli's recent games and 57% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ascoli and Modena matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Ascoli's recent matches and 69% of Modena's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Ascoli's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Regular Season - 34, as Ascoli and Modena drew 0-0 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ascoli 1.20 xG and Modena 0.97 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ascoli fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Modena landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ascoli attack 0.88 / defence 0.82 against Modena attack 0.97 / defence 1.11, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ascoli 39% | Draw 33% | Modena 28%, with Ascoli to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ascoli 38%, Modena 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ascoli's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Modena's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ascoli 1.13 PPG, Modena 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ascoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Modena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.66 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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