Como 3-1 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Como at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Como vs Pisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia plays host to Como versus Pisa in Serie B, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Saturday 16 March 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Como (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Como's home record at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Serie B appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Pisa's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L L D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Pisa's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Como, 1.50 for Pisa — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Como, 2 for Pisa and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Como half-time and goal-timing data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Pisa half-time and goal-timing data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Como 51% versus Pisa 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Como 45% | Pisa 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Como 1.40 xG and Pisa 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Como attack 1.120 / defence 0.877 | Pisa attack 0.982 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.244 / away 1.234. Data: 67 Como games / 67 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Como 44% | Draw 29% | Pisa 28%. Fair-value odds: Como 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Pisa 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Como at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Como if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Como 50% | Pisa 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Como vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Mar 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Como 44% | Draw 29% | Pisa 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Como 1.40 / Pisa 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Como attack 1.120 / def 0.877 | Pisa attack 0.982 / def 1.006 | league avg home 1.244 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Como (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Como xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Pisa xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Como vs Pisa kick off?
Como vs Pisa kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 16 March 2024 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What was the final score in Como vs Pisa?
Como 3 - 1 Pisa.
Where is Como vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What competition is Como vs Pisa part of?
Como vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Como vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Como a 44% chance of winning, Pisa a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Como the favourite.
Will both teams score in Como vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Como and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Como vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Como and Pisa?
Record (5 meetings): Como 0W | Draws 3 | Pisa 2W.
What form are Como and Pisa in?
Como (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Pisa (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Como's attack rating (1.12) and Pisa's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pisa's attack (0.98x) against Como's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Como Win
44%
2.28
29%
3.49
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Como xG
Total xG
2.46
1.06
Pisa xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
15%
6.61
7%
14.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.7 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Como vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Como and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Como and 1.06 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Como vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 67 outings, Como have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 25W 24D 18L record — L-D-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Pisa's form line: 20W 24D 23L from 67 games, 1.25 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for Como against 1.25 for Pisa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Como have posted 1.79 PPG from 33 outings (16W 11D 6L).
On the road, Pisa have gone 9W 13D 11L from 33 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Como come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Como are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.24 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Como
Current Season
Pisa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Como and Pisa in coming into this match?
Como have gone 25W 24D 18L in their last 67 games (1.48 PPG), while Pisa have gone 20W 24D 23L in their last 67 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Como at home or Pisa away?
Como's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Como at home: 1.79 PPG; Pisa away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Como or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Como have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Pisa in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Como go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Como won 5-0 on 22 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Como have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Pisa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Como
3
Draws
2
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Como and Pisa?
From 8 meetings on record, Como have won 3, Pisa have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Como and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Como 5-0 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Como and Pisa?
Como have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Pisa see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Como 54%, Pisa 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Como) and 36% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Como keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Pisa in 36%; Pisa in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Como home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Como play Pisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Como's recent matches and 52% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Como vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Como's recent games and 36% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Como and Pisa tend to score early?
Como have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Pisa in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Como cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Pisa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Como beat Pisa 3-1 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Como 1.40 xG and Pisa 1.06 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Como beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Como attack 1.12 / defence 0.88 against Pisa attack 0.98 / defence 1.01, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Como 44% | Draw 29% | Pisa 28%, with Como to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Como 45%, Pisa 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Como's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Pisa's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Como 1.48 PPG, Pisa 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Como win broke the near-deadlock. Como (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm. Pisa (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.