Spezia 0-0 Sampdoria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sampdoria at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Spezia vs Sampdoria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Spezia host Sampdoria at Stadio Alberto Picco in Serie B, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 April 2024 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Spezia — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Spezia have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stadio Alberto Picco — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sampdoria stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Sampdoria have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Spezia) versus 1.70 (Sampdoria). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Spezia register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sampdoria in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Spezia, 2 for Sampdoria and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2023, ended 1–2 with Sampdoria winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Spezia in-play and half-time data (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Sampdoria in-play and half-time data (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 49% versus Sampdoria 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 48% | Sampdoria 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 1.29 xG and Sampdoria 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 0.902 / defence 1.085 | Sampdoria attack 1.100 / defence 1.178. League average goals — home 1.215 / away 1.222. Data: 33 Spezia games / 33 Sampdoria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spezia 32% | Draw 29% | Sampdoria 39%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 3.12 | Draw 3.45 | Sampdoria 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sampdoria at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sampdoria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Spezia 60% | Sampdoria 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Sampdoria | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Apr 2024, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 32% | Draw 29% | Sampdoria 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG Spezia 1.29 / Sampdoria 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 0.902 / def 1.085 | Sampdoria attack 1.100 / def 1.178 | league avg home 1.215 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Sampdoria (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Sampdoria xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spezia vs Sampdoria kick off?
Spezia vs Sampdoria kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Sampdoria?
Spezia 0 - 0 Sampdoria.
Where is Spezia vs Sampdoria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Sampdoria part of?
Spezia vs Sampdoria is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Sampdoria?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 32% chance of winning, Sampdoria a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sampdoria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Sampdoria?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Spezia and Sampdoria will score (BTTS).
Will Spezia vs Sampdoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Sampdoria?
Record (5 meetings): Spezia 2W | Draws 1 | Sampdoria 2W.
What form are Spezia and Sampdoria in?
Spezia (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Sampdoria (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Spezia's attack at 0.90x the league average against Sampdoria's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sampdoria's attack versus Spezia's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sampdoria Win
32%
3.17
29%
3.41
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Spezia xG
Total xG
2.75
1.46
Sampdoria xG
3.17
32%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
23%
4.30
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
7%
13.63
11%
9.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 9.3 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.0 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.8 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Sampdoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Spezia and Sampdoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Spezia and 1.46 for Sampdoria, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Sampdoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 71 outings, Spezia have picked up 0.89 PPG on a 12W 27D 32L record — W-D-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Sampdoria's form line: 16W 17D 38L from 71 games, 0.92 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Spezia on 0.89 PPG, Sampdoria on 0.92. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Spezia have posted 1.03 PPG from 35 outings (7W 15D 13L).
On the road, Sampdoria have gone 9W 7D 19L from 35 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Spezia are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Sampdoria are on 1.00 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 71 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Current Season
Sampdoria
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spezia and Sampdoria in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 12W 27D 32L in their last 71 games (0.89 PPG), while Sampdoria have gone 16W 17D 38L in their last 71 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Sampdoria away?
Spezia's home record (1.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 1.03 PPG; Sampdoria away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Spezia's record when hosting Sampdoria specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Spezia
3
Draws
3
Sampdoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Sampdoria?
From 10 meetings on record, Spezia have won 4, Sampdoria have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Sampdoria last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Sampdoria 1-0 Spezia.
Who has won more matches between Spezia and Sampdoria?
Spezia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 51%, Sampdoria 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Spezia) and 54% (Sampdoria).
On the defensive side: Spezia have failed to score in 43% of games; Sampdoria in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Sampdoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spezia play Sampdoria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Spezia's recent matches and 57% of Sampdoria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Spezia vs Sampdoria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Spezia's recent games and 54% of Sampdoria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spezia and Sampdoria tend to score early?
Spezia have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Sampdoria in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Spezia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 34, as Spezia and Sampdoria drew 0-0 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.29 xG and Sampdoria 1.46 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Spezia fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Sampdoria landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 0.90 / defence 1.08 against Sampdoria attack 1.10 / defence 1.18, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 32% | Draw 29% | Sampdoria 39%, with Sampdoria to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 48%, Sampdoria 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sampdoria's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spezia 0.89 PPG, Sampdoria 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Spezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Sampdoria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.