Ascoli 3-0 Feralpisalo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ascoli at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ascoli vs Feralpisalo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ascoli host Feralpisalo at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca in Serie B, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 29 August 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Ascoli — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Ascoli have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ascoli's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across all Serie B games this season, Feralpisalo have recorded 0W 0D 2L from 2 outings — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Feralpisalo have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ascoli are in the better shape of the two on current Serie B data — 1.10 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ascoli 1.48 xG and Feralpisalo 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ascoli attack 1.020 / defence 1.004 | Feralpisalo attack 0.745 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 1.203 / away 1.035. Feralpisalo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.203 — this is suppressing Ascoli's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Ascoli games / 2 Feralpisalo games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Ascoli 52% | Draw 29% | Feralpisalo 18%. Fair-value odds: Ascoli 1.92 | Draw 3.45 | Feralpisalo 5.56. Ascoli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ascoli at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ascoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ascoli vs Feralpisalo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca • Kick-off: Tuesday 29 Aug 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ascoli 52% | Draw 29% | Feralpisalo 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 43% | xG Ascoli 1.48 / Feralpisalo 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Ascoli attack 1.020 / def 1.004 | Feralpisalo attack 0.745 / def 1.203 | league avg home 1.203 / away 1.035 • Poisson stance: Ascoli (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Ascoli xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Feralpisalo xG
43%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ascoli vs Feralpisalo kick off?
Ascoli vs Feralpisalo kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 29 August 2023 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What was the final score in Ascoli vs Feralpisalo?
Ascoli 3 - 0 Feralpisalo.
Where is Ascoli vs Feralpisalo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What competition is Ascoli vs Feralpisalo part of?
Ascoli vs Feralpisalo is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ascoli vs Feralpisalo?
Our statistical model gives Ascoli a 52% chance of winning, Feralpisalo a 18% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Ascoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ascoli vs Feralpisalo?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Ascoli and Feralpisalo will score (BTTS).
Will Ascoli vs Feralpisalo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Feralpisalo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ascoli and Feralpisalo in?
Ascoli (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Feralpisalo (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ascoli's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Feralpisalo's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. The same calculation in reverse, Feralpisalo's attack versus Ascoli's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.6%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ascoli Win
52%
1.91
29%
3.40
18%
5.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Ascoli xG
Total xG
2.25
0.77
Feralpisalo xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
5.49
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
23%
4.37
Win to Nil
24%
4.14
4%
23.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 8.2 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 12.0 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 8.9 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ascoli vs Feralpisalo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Ascoli and Feralpisalo expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Ascoli and 0.77 for Feralpisalo, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Ascoli vs Feralpisalo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ascoli's recent record stands at 0W 0D 2L from 2 games, a 0.00 PPG return, with L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Ascoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Feralpisalo, meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 2L across 2 games — 0.00 PPG, with L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Feralpisalo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ascoli on 0.00 PPG, Feralpisalo on 0.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Ascoli are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Feralpisalo are on 0.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ascoli have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Feralpisalo in 0%.
Last 2 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ascoli
Early Season
Feralpisalo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ascoli and Feralpisalo in coming into this match?
Ascoli have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 games (0.00 PPG), while Feralpisalo have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ascoli and Feralpisalo runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Ascoli
0
Draws
0
Feralpisalo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Feralpisalo?
From 2 meetings on record, Ascoli have won 2, Feralpisalo have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ascoli and Feralpisalo last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2024, when Feralpisalo 0-1 Ascoli.
Who has won more matches between Ascoli and Feralpisalo?
Ascoli have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ascoli home games / Feralpisalo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ascoli play Feralpisalo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Ascoli's recent matches and 0% of Feralpisalo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ascoli vs Feralpisalo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Ascoli's recent games and 0% of Feralpisalo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ascoli and Feralpisalo tend to score early?
Ascoli have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Feralpisalo in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ascoli run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Feralpisalo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ascoli beat Feralpisalo 3-0 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ascoli 1.48 xG and Feralpisalo 0.77 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Ascoli beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ascoli attack 1.02 / defence 1.00 against Feralpisalo attack 0.74 / defence 1.20, drawn from 40/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Ascoli 52% | Draw 29% | Feralpisalo 18%, with Ascoli to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ascoli 50%, Feralpisalo 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ascoli 0.00 PPG, Feralpisalo 0.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ascoli win broke the near-deadlock. Ascoli scored 3 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Feralpisalo shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.