Sudtirol 3-1 Ascoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sudtirol vs Ascoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sudtirol host Ascoli at Stadio Marco Druso in Serie B, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 2 September 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Sudtirol — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Sudtirol have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Marco Druso, Sudtirol have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Serie B games this season, Ascoli have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Ascoli have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ascoli away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Sudtirol carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Sudtirol have won 0, Ascoli 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2023, ended 0–1 with Ascoli winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Sudtirol in-play tendencies (41 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Ascoli in-play tendencies (41 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 42% versus Ascoli 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sudtirol 24% | Ascoli 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.57 xG and Ascoli 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 1.104 / defence 1.189 | Ascoli attack 0.739 / defence 1.171. League average goals — home 1.212 / away 1.080. Data: 40 Sudtirol games / 41 Ascoli games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 50% | Draw 28% | Ascoli 22%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Ascoli 4.55. Sudtirol hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sudtirol as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sudtirol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Sudtirol 50% | Ascoli 30% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Ascoli | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Sep 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 50% | Draw 28% | Ascoli 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Sudtirol 1.57 / Ascoli 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 1.104 / def 1.189 | Ascoli attack 0.739 / def 1.171 | league avg home 1.212 / away 1.080 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Ascoli xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Ascoli kick off?
Sudtirol vs Ascoli kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 2 September 2023 at Stadio Marco Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Ascoli?
Sudtirol 3 - 1 Ascoli.
Where is Sudtirol vs Ascoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Ascoli part of?
Sudtirol vs Ascoli is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Ascoli?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 50% chance of winning, Ascoli a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Ascoli?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Sudtirol and Ascoli will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Ascoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Ascoli?
Record (2 meetings): Sudtirol 0W | Draws 1 | Ascoli 1W.
What form are Sudtirol and Ascoli in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Ascoli (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sudtirol's attack at 1.10x the league average against Ascoli's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ascoli's attack versus Sudtirol's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/41 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
50%
1.98
28%
3.57
22%
4.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.51
0.95
Ascoli xG
1.98
50%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
4.65
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
21%
4.79
Win to Nil
20%
5.11
4%
22.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.0 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.4 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Ascoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Ascoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Sudtirol and 0.95 for Ascoli, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Ascoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sudtirol's recent record stands at 17W 17D 7L from 41 games, a 1.66 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sudtirol, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ascoli, meanwhile, have gone 13W 11D 17L across 41 games — 1.22 PPG, with D-L-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Ascoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sudtirol by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ascoli heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sudtirol have managed 8W 11D 2L from 21 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ascoli's away record stands at 6W 5D 10L across 21 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sudtirol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sudtirol are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Ascoli are on 1.05 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: Sudtirol have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Early Season
Ascoli
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Ascoli in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 17W 17D 7L in their last 41 games (1.66 PPG), while Ascoli have gone 13W 11D 17L in their last 41 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Ascoli away?
Sudtirol's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.67 PPG; Ascoli away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Sudtirol or Ascoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sudtirol have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Ascoli in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sudtirol and Ascoli runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sudtirol go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Sudtirol's record when hosting Ascoli specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Sudtirol
1
Draws
1
Ascoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Ascoli?
From 4 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 2, Ascoli have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Ascoli last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2024, when Ascoli 1-2 Sudtirol.
Who has won more matches between Sudtirol and Ascoli?
Sudtirol have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 57%, Ascoli 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Sudtirol and 33% for Ascoli.
On the defensive side: Sudtirol keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Ascoli in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Ascoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Ascoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Sudtirol's recent matches and 43% of Ascoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sudtirol vs Ascoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Sudtirol's recent games and 33% of Ascoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Ascoli tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Ascoli in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sudtirol cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Ascoli.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sudtirol beat Ascoli 3-1 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.57 xG and Ascoli 0.95 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Sudtirol beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 1.10 / defence 1.19 against Ascoli attack 0.74 / defence 1.17, drawn from 40/41 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 50% | Draw 28% | Ascoli 22%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 24%, Ascoli 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (41 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Ascoli's trading profile (41 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sudtirol arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.22. That form edge translated into the three points. Sudtirol (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm. Ascoli (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.