Modena 1-0 Ascoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Modena at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Modena face Ascoli.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ascoli make the trip to Stadio Alberto Braglia to face Modena in Serie B (matchday 2). The match kicks off on Saturday 26 August 2023 at 20:30 UK time.
Form
Modena (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Modena's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 5D 1L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Ascoli have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
On the road, Ascoli have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Modena against 1.10 for Ascoli. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Mar 2023, ended Modena 0–1 Ascoli — a Ascoli win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Modena — key trading statistics (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Ascoli — key trading statistics (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 55% versus Ascoli 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 47% | Ascoli 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.48 xG and Ascoli 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 1.006 / defence 0.939 | Ascoli attack 0.843 / defence 1.212. League average goals — home 1.213 / away 1.021. Ascoli's defence rating of 1.212 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Modena's projected output up. Data: built from Modena's last 38 games and Ascoli's last 39. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Modena 51% | Draw 31% | Ascoli 18%. Fair-value odds: Modena 1.98 | Draw 3.20 | Ascoli 5.53. Modena hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Modena are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Modena if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Modena's last 10 home games and Ascoli's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Modena 40% (last 10 home games) | Ascoli 40% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Modena 38 games, Ascoli 39) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Ascoli | Competition: Serie B, matchday 2 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Saturday 26 August 2023 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 51% | Draw 31% | Ascoli 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Modena 1.48 / Ascoli 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 1.006 / def 0.939 | Ascoli attack 0.843 / def 1.212 | league avg home 1.213 / away 1.021 • Poisson stance: Modena (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Modena xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Ascoli xG
45%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Modena vs Ascoli FAQs
What time does Modena vs Ascoli kick off?
Modena vs Ascoli kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Saturday 26 August 2023 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Ascoli?
Modena 1 - 0 Ascoli.
Where is Modena vs Ascoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Ascoli part of?
Modena vs Ascoli is a Serie B fixture (matchday 2) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Ascoli?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 51% chance of winning, Ascoli a 18% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Ascoli?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Modena and Ascoli will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Modena vs Ascoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Modena's attack rating (1.01) and Ascoli's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ascoli's attack (0.84x) against Modena's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from Modena's last 38 games and Ascoli's last 39, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.4%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
51%
1.98
31%
3.20
18%
5.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Modena xG
Total xG
2.29
0.81
Ascoli xG
1.98
51%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
5.53
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
45%
2.25
23%
4.39
Win to Nil
23%
4.44
4%
24.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 8.2 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 12.1 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Modena vs Ascoli Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Ascoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Modena and Ascoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Modena and 0.81 for Ascoli, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Ascoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 38 outings, Modena have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 13W 9D 16L record — D-L-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Ascoli's form line: 11W 11D 16L from 38 games, 1.16 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Modena against 1.16 for Ascoli. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Modena have posted 1.53 PPG from their last 19 home games (7W 8D 4L).
On the road, Ascoli have gone 5W 5D 9L from their last 19 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Modena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Modena are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Ascoli are on 1.00 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 38 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Pre-Season
Ascoli
Early Season
Modena (Home) vs Ascoli (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Modena
Pre-Season
Ascoli
Early Season
❓ Modena vs Ascoli Form FAQs
What form are Modena and Ascoli in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 13W 9D 16L in their last 38 games (1.26 PPG), while Ascoli have gone 11W 11D 16L in their last 38 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Ascoli away?
Modena's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.53 PPG; Ascoli away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 20 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Modena have gone 1W 0D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Ascoli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Modena
1
Draws
1
Ascoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Modena vs Ascoli H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Ascoli?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Modena have won 2, Ascoli have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Modena and Ascoli last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 April 2024: Ascoli 0-0 Modena.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Ascoli?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 53%, Ascoli 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 32% for Modena and 32% for Ascoli.
On the defensive side: Modena keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Modena have failed to score in 26% of games; Ascoli in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Ascoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Modena vs Ascoli Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Modena and Ascoli matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Modena's recent matches and 42% of Ascoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Modena and Ascoli matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Modena's recent games and 32% of Ascoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Ascoli matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Modena's recent matches and 63% of Ascoli's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Modena edge out Ascoli 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Modena beat Ascoli 1-0 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.48 xG and Ascoli 0.81 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ascoli landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 1.01 / defence 0.94 against Ascoli attack 0.84 / defence 1.21, drawn from 38/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Modena 51% | Draw 31% | Ascoli 18%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 47%, Ascoli 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Ascoli's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Modena 1.26 PPG, Ascoli 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Modena win broke the near-deadlock. Modena (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. Ascoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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