Torino 0-0 Salernitana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Torino (62%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Torino face Salernitana.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Torino welcome Salernitana to Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino in Serie A (matchday 23). Kick-off is Sunday 4 February 2024 at 11:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Torino stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Torino at home: 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Salernitana have recorded 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Salernitana away from home: 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Torino are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
Torino hold a clear advantage across the 5 H2H matches in our data, with 3 wins compared to 0 for Salernitana and 2 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Sep 2023, ended Torino 3–0 Salernitana — a Torino win.
The head-to-head data gives Torino an edge — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Data
Torino trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Salernitana trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 67%; of the 27 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Torino 42% versus Salernitana 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Torino 34% | Salernitana 61%). Note also that Salernitana surrender HT leads in 67% of cases while Torino recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Torino 1.80 xG and Salernitana 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Torino attack 1.019 / defence 0.781 | Salernitana attack 0.837 / defence 1.253. League average goals — home 1.407 / away 1.091. Salernitana's defence rating of 1.253 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Torino's projected output up. Torino have a tight defence (rating 0.781), which is pulling Salernitana's projected output down. Data: built from Torino's last 59 games and Salernitana's last 60.
Result probabilities: Torino 62% | Draw 25% | Salernitana 13%. Fair-value odds: Torino 1.61 | Draw 4.02 | Salernitana 7.66. The model has a clear lean to Torino (62%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Torino as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Torino 30% (last 10 home games) | Salernitana 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Torino vs Salernitana | Competition: Serie A, matchday 23 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino • Kick-off: Sunday 4 February 2024 at 11:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Torino 62% | Draw 25% | Salernitana 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Torino 1.80 / Salernitana 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Torino attack 1.019 / def 0.781 | Salernitana attack 0.837 / def 1.253 | league avg home 1.407 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Torino (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Torino xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Salernitana xG
44%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Torino vs Salernitana FAQs
What time does Torino vs Salernitana kick off?
Torino vs Salernitana kicked off at 11:30 UK time on Sunday 4 February 2024 at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino.
What was the final score in Torino vs Salernitana?
Torino 0 - 0 Salernitana.
Where is Torino vs Salernitana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino.
What competition is Torino vs Salernitana part of?
Torino vs Salernitana is a Serie A fixture (matchday 23) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Torino vs Salernitana?
Our statistical model gives Torino a 62% chance of winning, Salernitana a 13% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Torino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Torino vs Salernitana?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Torino and Salernitana will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Torino vs Salernitana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Torino's attack rating (1.02) and Salernitana's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Salernitana's attack versus Torino's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Torino's last 59 games and Salernitana's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.1%), 1-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Torino Win
62%
1.61
25%
4.02
13%
7.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Torino xG
Total xG
2.51
0.71
Salernitana xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
7.66
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
49%
2.04
17%
6.03
Win to Nil
30%
3.29
2%
46.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 10.4 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 13.1 | 9.4 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.9 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Torino vs Salernitana Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Torino vs Salernitana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Torino and Salernitana expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Torino and 0.71 for Salernitana, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Torino vs Salernitana?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Torino come into this having played 59 games, going 22W 18D 19L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-W.
On the other side, Salernitana sit at 0.92 PPG from 59 outings (11W 21D 27L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five.
Torino carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Salernitana — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Torino's home form reads 10W 11D 8L across their last 29 home games, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Salernitana have taken 0.69 points per game from their last 29 away games (3W 11D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Torino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Torino are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Salernitana are on 1.14 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Defensively: Torino have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Torino
Blended
Salernitana
Blended
Torino (Home) vs Salernitana (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Torino
Blended
Salernitana
Blended
❓ Torino vs Salernitana Form FAQs
What form are Torino and Salernitana in coming into this match?
Torino have gone 22W 18D 19L in their last 59 games (1.42 PPG), while Salernitana have gone 11W 21D 27L in their last 59 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Torino at home or Salernitana away?
Torino's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Torino at home: 1.41 PPG; Salernitana away: 0.69 PPG.
Have Torino or Salernitana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Torino have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Salernitana in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from September 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent in our data was on 4 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 12 Sep 2021, when Torino won Torino 4-0 Salernitana.
Torino's record when hosting Salernitana specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Torino
3
Draws
0
Salernitana
Recent Meetings
❓ Torino vs Salernitana H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and Salernitana?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Torino have won 3, Salernitana have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Torino and Salernitana last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 February 2024: Torino 0-0 Salernitana.
Who has won more matches between Torino and Salernitana?
Torino have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Torino see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Torino 38%, Salernitana 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 28% (Torino) and 52% (Salernitana).
On the defensive side: Torino keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Torino have failed to score in 34% of games; Salernitana in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Torino home games / Salernitana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Torino vs Salernitana Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Torino and Salernitana matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Torino's recent matches and 55% of Salernitana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Torino and Salernitana matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Torino's recent games and 52% of Salernitana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Torino and Salernitana matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 55% of Torino's recent matches and 83% of Salernitana's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Torino's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Regular Season - 23, as Torino and Salernitana drew 0-0 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Torino 1.80 xG and Salernitana 0.71 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Torino fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Torino attack 1.02 / defence 0.78 against Salernitana attack 0.84 / defence 1.25, drawn from 59/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Torino 62% | Draw 25% | Salernitana 13%, with Torino to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Torino 34%, Salernitana 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Torino's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Salernitana's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Torino arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Torino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Salernitana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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