Salernitana 1-3 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Empoli at 35% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Salernitana vs Empoli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Salernitana host Empoli at Stadio Arechi in Serie A (matchday 24). Kick-off is Friday 9 February 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Salernitana have gone 1W 2D 7L — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Salernitana have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Empoli stand at 1W 5D 4L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Empoli away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Salernitana at 0.50 PPG versus Empoli's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
Despite the home advantage, Empoli have the better record in our head-to-head data — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches against 0 for Salernitana.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 27 Sep 2023, ended Salernitana 0–1 Empoli — a Empoli win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Empoli have won 3 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.2 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Salernitana in-play tendencies (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 67%; of the 28 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Empoli in-play tendencies (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salernitana 57% versus Empoli 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salernitana 59% | Empoli 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salernitana 1.24 xG and Empoli 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salernitana attack 0.880 / defence 1.428 | Empoli attack 0.814 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.416 / away 1.071. Salernitana's defence rating of 1.428 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Empoli's projected output up. Data: built from Salernitana's last 61 games and Empoli's last 61.
Result probabilities: Salernitana 35% | Draw 30% | Empoli 35%. Fair-value odds: Salernitana 2.88 | Draw 3.31 | Empoli 2.86. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 35% to win, with the draw at 30%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Salernitana 35% and Empoli 35%, with the draw at 30%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Salernitana 80% (last 10 home games) | Empoli 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salernitana vs Empoli | Competition: Serie A, matchday 24 | Venue: Stadio Arechi • Kick-off: Friday 9 February 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salernitana 35% | Draw 30% | Empoli 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Salernitana 1.24 / Empoli 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Salernitana attack 0.880 / def 1.428 | Empoli attack 0.814 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.416 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — Salernitana and Empoli level at 35% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Salernitana xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Empoli xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Salernitana vs Empoli FAQs
What time does Salernitana vs Empoli kick off?
Salernitana vs Empoli kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Friday 9 February 2024 at Stadio Arechi.
What was the final score in Salernitana vs Empoli?
Salernitana 1 - 3 Empoli.
Where is Salernitana vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Arechi.
What competition is Salernitana vs Empoli part of?
Salernitana vs Empoli is a Serie A fixture (matchday 24) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Salernitana vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Salernitana a 35% chance of winning, Empoli a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Salernitana vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Salernitana and Empoli will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Salernitana vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Salernitana's attack at 0.88x the league average against Empoli's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Empoli's attack versus Salernitana's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Salernitana's last 61 games and Empoli's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Empoli Win
35%
2.88
30%
3.31
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Salernitana xG
Total xG
2.48
1.24
Empoli xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
10%
9.98
10%
9.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 10.4 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.9 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Salernitana vs Empoli Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Salernitana vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Salernitana and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Salernitana and 1.24 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Salernitana vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 61 outings, Salernitana have picked up 0.90 PPG on a 11W 22D 28L record — L-L-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Empoli's form line: 14W 19D 28L from 61 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Salernitana on 0.90 PPG, Empoli on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Salernitana have posted 1.13 PPG from their last 30 home games (8W 10D 12L).
On the road, Empoli have gone 4W 12D 14L from their last 30 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Salernitana are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 0.85 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salernitana
Blended
Empoli
Blended
Salernitana (Home) vs Empoli (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Salernitana
Blended
Empoli
Blended
❓ Salernitana vs Empoli Form FAQs
What form are Salernitana and Empoli in coming into this match?
Salernitana have gone 11W 22D 28L in their last 61 games (0.90 PPG), while Empoli have gone 14W 19D 28L in their last 61 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salernitana at home or Empoli away?
Salernitana's home record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salernitana at home: 1.13 PPG; Empoli away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent in our data was on 9 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Empoli have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Salernitana's record when hosting Empoli specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Salernitana
2
Draws
4
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Salernitana vs Empoli H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and Empoli?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Salernitana have won 0, Empoli have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Salernitana and Empoli last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 February 2024: Salernitana 1-3 Empoli.
Who has won more matches between Salernitana and Empoli?
Empoli have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 42% of those situations.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salernitana 63%, Empoli 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Salernitana) and 33% (Empoli).
On the defensive side: Empoli in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salernitana home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Salernitana vs Empoli Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Salernitana and Empoli matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Salernitana's games and 50% of Empoli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Salernitana and Empoli matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 70% of Salernitana's recent games and 33% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Salernitana and Empoli matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Salernitana's recent matches and 67% of Empoli's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Empoli cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Salernitana.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Empoli beat Salernitana 1-3 at Stadio Arechi, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salernitana 1.24 xG and Empoli 1.24 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Empoli outscored their 1.24 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salernitana attack 0.88 / defence 1.43 against Empoli attack 0.81 / defence 0.99, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salernitana 35% | Draw 30% | Empoli 35%, with Salernitana to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Empoli win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salernitana 59%, Empoli 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salernitana's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Empoli's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Salernitana 0.90 PPG, Empoli 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Empoli win broke the near-deadlock. Salernitana (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Empoli (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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