Atalanta 3-1 Lazio – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Atalanta at 56% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Atalanta face Lazio.

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Full Analysis

Gewiss Stadium plays host to Atalanta versus Lazio in Serie A (matchday 23). Kick-off: Sunday 4 February 2024 at 17:00 UK time.

Form

Atalanta (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Atalanta's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Atalanta are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Lazio have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Lazio's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Atalanta against 1.80 for Lazio. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Lazio edge it 2 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Oct 2023, ended Atalanta 2–3 Lazio — a Lazio win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Atalanta goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).

Lazio goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 27 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atalanta 52% versus Lazio 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atalanta 51% | Lazio 39%). Note also that Lazio surrender HT leads in 37% of cases while Atalanta recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Atalanta 1.76 xG and Lazio 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atalanta attack 1.395 / defence 0.796 | Lazio attack 1.047 / defence 0.902. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 1.084. Atalanta carry an above-average attack rating of 1.395 — their 1.76 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Atalanta have a tight defence (rating 0.796), which is pulling Lazio's projected output down. Data: built from Atalanta's last 59 games and Lazio's last 59.

Result probabilities: Atalanta 56% | Draw 26% | Lazio 18%. Fair-value odds: Atalanta 1.78 | Draw 3.80 | Lazio 5.68. The model has a clear lean to Atalanta (56%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Atalanta are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Atalanta 40% (last 10 home games) | Lazio 60% (last 10 away games).

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