Torino 1-1 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Torino at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Torino vs AS Roma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino plays host to Torino versus AS Roma in Serie A, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Sunday 24 September 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Torino have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Torino have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Torino at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino this season.
AS Roma (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. AS Roma have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, AS Roma have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Torino's favour (1.80 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
AS Roma hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 4 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Apr 2023, ended 0–1 with AS Roma winning.
It is worth noting that AS Roma have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Torino goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games).
AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Torino 48% versus AS Roma 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Torino 36% | AS Roma 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Torino 1.14 xG and AS Roma 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Torino attack 0.753 / defence 0.857 | AS Roma attack 0.971 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.443 / away 1.123. Torino's attack strength of 0.753 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 42 Torino games / 42 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Torino 39% | Draw 33% | AS Roma 28%. Fair-value odds: Torino 2.56 | Draw 3.03 | AS Roma 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
AS Roma lead the H2H ledger, but Torino carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Torino as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Torino if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Torino 40% | AS Roma 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Torino vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Sep 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Torino 39% | Draw 33% | AS Roma 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 43% | xG Torino 1.14 / AS Roma 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Torino attack 0.753 / def 0.857 | AS Roma attack 0.971 / def 1.047 | league avg home 1.443 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Torino (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Torino xG
Expected Goals
0.93
AS Roma xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Torino vs AS Roma kick off?
Torino vs AS Roma kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 24 September 2023 at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino.
What was the final score in Torino vs AS Roma?
Torino 1 - 1 AS Roma.
Where is Torino vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino.
What competition is Torino vs AS Roma part of?
Torino vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Torino vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Torino a 39% chance of winning, AS Roma a 28% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Torino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Torino vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Torino and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Torino vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and AS Roma?
Record (4 meetings): Torino 0W | Draws 1 | AS Roma 3W.
What form are Torino and AS Roma in?
Torino (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. AS Roma (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Torino's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. Flip it around — AS Roma's attack (0.97x) against Torino's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Torino Win
39%
2.59
33%
3.01
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Torino xG
Total xG
2.07
0.93
AS Roma xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
15%
6.59
9%
11.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 11.8 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Torino vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Torino and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Torino and 0.93 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Torino vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 42 outings, Torino have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 16W 12D 14L record — L-D-L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Torino, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
AS Roma's form line: 19W 10D 13L from 42 games, 1.60 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for AS Roma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for Torino against 1.60 for AS Roma. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Torino have posted 1.25 PPG from 20 outings (6W 7D 7L).
On the road, AS Roma have gone 7W 6D 7L from 20 away games — 1.35 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Torino are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.45 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Torino
Early Season
AS Roma
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Torino and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Torino have gone 16W 12D 14L in their last 42 games (1.43 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 19W 10D 13L in their last 42 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Torino at home or AS Roma away?
AS Roma's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Torino at home: 1.25 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Torino or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Torino have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, AS Roma in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AS Roma won 0-3 on 20 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Torino have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against AS Roma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Torino
2
Draws
7
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and AS Roma?
From 10 meetings on record, Torino have won 1, AS Roma have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Torino and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Torino 0-2 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between Torino and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Torino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Torino 40%, AS Roma 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Torino and 50% for AS Roma.
On the defensive side: Torino have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Torino home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Torino play AS Roma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Torino's recent matches and 65% of AS Roma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Torino vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Torino's recent games and 50% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Torino and AS Roma tend to score early?
Torino have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Torino and AS Roma share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Torino and AS Roma finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Torino 1.14 xG and AS Roma 0.93 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Torino attack 0.75 / defence 0.86 against AS Roma attack 0.97 / defence 1.05, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Torino 39% | Draw 33% | AS Roma 28%, with Torino to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Torino 36%, AS Roma 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Torino's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
AS Roma's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Torino 1.43 PPG, AS Roma 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.