Salernitana 0-3 Torino – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Salernitana at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Salernitana face Torino.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

Salernitana welcome Torino to Stadio Arechi in Serie A (matchday 4). Kick-off is Monday 18 September 2023 at 18:30 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Salernitana stand at 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Salernitana have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Salernitana are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Torino — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Torino's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Salernitana 1.10 PPG, Torino 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Salernitana, 2 for Torino and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 Apr 2023, ended Salernitana 1–1 Torino — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Salernitana in-play and half-time data (last 41 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).

Torino in-play and half-time data (last 41 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salernitana 58% versus Torino 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salernitana 54% | Torino 34%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Salernitana surrender their half-time lead 56% of the time, while Torino have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Salernitana 1.67 xG and Torino 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salernitana attack 1.019 / defence 1.042 | Torino attack 1.076 / defence 1.076. League average goals — home 1.522 / away 1.169. Data: built from Salernitana's last 41 games and Torino's last 41.

Result probabilities: Salernitana 45% | Draw 25% | Torino 30%. Fair-value odds: Salernitana 2.21 | Draw 3.99 | Torino 3.38. Salernitana hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.67 / 1.31) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Salernitana at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Salernitana offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Salernitana's last 10 home games and Torino's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Salernitana 50% (last 10 home games) | Torino 40% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights