Lazio 1-1 Monza – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Lazio at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lazio face Monza.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Monza make the trip to Stadio Olimpico to face Lazio in Serie A (matchday 5). The match kicks off on Saturday 23 September 2023 at 20:45 UK time.
Form
Lazio (all games): 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Lazio have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Monza have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Monza's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Lazio, 1.20 for Monza — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Lazio edge it 2 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 2 Apr 2023, ended Lazio 2–0 Monza — a Lazio win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Lazio goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 42 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Monza goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 42 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lazio 38% versus Monza 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lazio 45% | Monza 43%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Lazio surrender their half-time lead 40% of the time, while Monza have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lazio 1.42 xG and Monza 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lazio attack 0.889 / defence 1.001 | Monza attack 0.864 / defence 1.071. League average goals — home 1.492 / away 1.153. Data: built from Lazio's last 42 games and Monza's last 42.
Result probabilities: Lazio 46% | Draw 29% | Monza 26%. Fair-value odds: Lazio 2.18 | Draw 3.49 | Monza 3.92. Lazio hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lazio are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lazio if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 56% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lazio 40% (last 10 home games) | Monza 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lazio vs Monza | Competition: Serie A, matchday 5 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Saturday 23 September 2023 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lazio 46% | Draw 29% | Monza 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Lazio 1.42 / Monza 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Lazio attack 0.889 / def 1.001 | Monza attack 0.864 / def 1.071 | league avg home 1.492 / away 1.153 • Poisson stance: Lazio (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Lazio xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Monza xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lazio vs Monza FAQs
What time does Lazio vs Monza kick off?
Lazio vs Monza kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Saturday 23 September 2023 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in Lazio vs Monza?
Lazio 1 - 1 Monza.
Where is Lazio vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is Lazio vs Monza part of?
Lazio vs Monza is a Serie A fixture (matchday 5) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lazio vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Lazio a 46% chance of winning, Monza a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Lazio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lazio vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Lazio and Monza will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Lazio vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Lazio's attack at 0.89x the league average against Monza's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Monza's attack (0.86x) against Lazio's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from Lazio's last 42 games and Monza's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lazio Win
46%
2.18
29%
3.49
26%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Lazio xG
Total xG
2.42
1.00
Monza xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
3.92
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
17%
5.91
6%
16.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.6 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lazio vs Monza Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lazio vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Lazio and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Lazio and 1.00 for Monza, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Lazio vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lazio come into this having played 42 games, going 23W 8D 11L for 1.83 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Monza sit at 1.33 PPG from 42 outings (15W 11D 16L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-D across their last five.
Lazio carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Monza — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Lazio's home form reads 11W 4D 5L across their last 20 home games, a 1.85 PPG return.
Away from home, Monza have taken 1.30 points per game from their last 20 away games (7W 5D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lazio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lazio are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 1.21 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: Lazio have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lazio
Early Season
Monza
Early Season
Lazio (Home) vs Monza (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lazio
Early Season
Monza
Early Season
❓ Lazio vs Monza Form FAQs
What form are Lazio and Monza in coming into this match?
Lazio have gone 23W 8D 11L in their last 42 games (1.83 PPG), while Monza have gone 15W 11D 16L in their last 42 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lazio at home or Monza away?
Lazio's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lazio at home: 1.85 PPG; Monza away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Lazio or Monza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lazio have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Monza in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 7 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Lazio have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lazio won Lazio 5-1 Monza on 9 Feb 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lazio have gone 3W 1D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Monza — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
5
Lazio
2
Draws
0
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Lazio vs Monza H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and Monza?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Lazio have won 5, Monza have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lazio and Monza last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: Lazio 3-1 Monza.
Who has won more matches between Lazio and Monza?
Lazio have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lazio 45%, Monza 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Lazio) and 45% (Monza).
On the defensive side: Lazio keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Monza in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lazio home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lazio vs Monza Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lazio and Monza matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Lazio's recent matches and 45% of Monza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lazio and Monza matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Lazio's recent games and 45% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lazio and Monza matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Lazio's recent matches and 75% of Monza's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lazio and Monza share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 5, as Lazio and Monza drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lazio 1.42 xG and Monza 1.00 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lazio attack 0.89 / defence 1.00 against Monza attack 0.86 / defence 1.07, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lazio 46% | Draw 29% | Monza 26%, with Lazio to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lazio 45%, Monza 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lazio's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Monza's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lazio arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Serie A fixtures — matchday 5
All Serie A fixtures →
More Italian football predictions →