Bologna 4-0 Lecce – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bologna at 56% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bologna vs Lecce encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Lecce travel to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara to take on Bologna in Serie A (matchday 24). The game is scheduled for Sunday 11 February 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Bologna stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bologna's home record over their last 10 home games: 8W 2D 0L (2.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Bologna are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Lecce have recorded 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Lecce away from home: 0W 4D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On current form, Bologna have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Bologna have won 2, Lecce 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 3 Dec 2023, ended Bologna 1–1 Lecce — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Bologna trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Lecce trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 60% versus Lecce 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 50% | Lecce 35%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Bologna surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Lecce have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Lecce surrender HT leads in 54% of cases while Bologna recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 44% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.62 xG and Lecce 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 1.127 / defence 0.824 | Lecce attack 0.837 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.438 / away 1.114. Data: built from Bologna's last 60 games and Lecce's last 61.
Result probabilities: Bologna 56% | Draw 28% | Lecce 16%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 1.78 | Draw 3.62 | Lecce 6.21. The model has a clear lean to Bologna (56%) — a 28pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bologna as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Bologna's last 10 home games and Lecce's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 55%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Bologna 40% (last 10 home games) | Lecce 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Lecce | Competition: Serie A, matchday 24 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Sunday 11 February 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 56% | Draw 28% | Lecce 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Bologna 1.62 / Lecce 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 1.127 / def 0.824 | Lecce attack 0.837 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.438 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Bologna (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Lecce xG
45%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bologna vs Lecce FAQs
What time does Bologna vs Lecce kick off?
Bologna vs Lecce kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 11 February 2024 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Lecce?
Bologna 4 - 0 Lecce.
Where is Bologna vs Lecce being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Lecce part of?
Bologna vs Lecce is a Serie A fixture (matchday 24) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Lecce?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 56% chance of winning, Lecce a 16% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Lecce?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Bologna and Lecce will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Bologna vs Lecce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bologna's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Lecce's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. The same calculation in reverse, Lecce's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bologna's last 60 games and Lecce's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.9%), 2-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
56%
1.78
28%
3.62
16%
6.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.39
0.77
Lecce xG
1.78
56%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
6.21
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.25
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
20%
5.06
Win to Nil
26%
3.84
3%
31.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.8 | 11.4 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.5 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bologna vs Lecce Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Lecce?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Bologna and Lecce expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Bologna and 0.77 for Lecce, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Lecce?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bologna's recent record stands at 23W 21D 16L from 60 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-W in the last five.
Lecce, meanwhile, have gone 13W 21D 26L across 60 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-L-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bologna by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lecce heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Bologna have managed 15W 11D 4L from their last 30 home games — 1.87 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lecce's away record stands at 5W 9D 16L across their last 30 away games, a 0.80 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bologna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bologna are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Lecce are on 0.93 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bologna have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Blended
Lecce
Blended
Bologna (Home) vs Lecce (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bologna
Blended
Lecce
Blended
❓ Bologna vs Lecce Form FAQs
What form are Bologna and Lecce in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 23W 21D 16L in their last 60 games (1.50 PPG), while Lecce have gone 13W 21D 26L in their last 60 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Lecce away?
Bologna's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.87 PPG; Lecce away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from October 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Bologna have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 Feb 2024, when Bologna won Bologna 4-0 Lecce.
Bologna's record when hosting Lecce specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Bologna
3
Draws
0
Lecce
Recent Meetings
❓ Bologna vs Lecce H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Lecce?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Bologna have won 6, Lecce have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Lecce last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: Lecce 1-2 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Lecce?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 71% of those situations.
Lecce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 47%, Lecce 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Bologna and 30% for Lecce.
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Lecce in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Lecce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bologna vs Lecce Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bologna and Lecce matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Bologna's recent matches and 47% of Lecce's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bologna and Lecce matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Bologna's recent games and 30% of Lecce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Lecce matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Bologna's recent matches and 67% of Lecce's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bologna run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Lecce.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Lecce 4-0 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.62 xG and Lecce 0.77 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Bologna beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 1.13 / defence 0.82 against Lecce attack 0.84 / defence 1.00, drawn from 60/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 56% | Draw 28% | Lecce 16%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 50%, Lecce 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Lecce's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Bologna (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm. Lecce (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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