Genoa 1-0 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Genoa at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Genoa vs Udinese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Udinese travel to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris to take on Genoa. The game is scheduled for Friday 4 April 2025, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Genoa have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Genoa's home record at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Udinese — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Udinese away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Genoa 1.20 PPG, Udinese 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Genoa have won 2, Udinese 0, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.6 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2024, ended 2–0 with Genoa winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Genoa trading profile (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Udinese trading profile (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 53% versus Udinese 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 40% | Udinese 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.28 xG and Udinese 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.960 / defence 0.931 | Udinese attack 0.922 / defence 1.043. League average goals — home 1.284 / away 1.159. Data: 68 Genoa games / 68 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 42% | Draw 31% | Udinese 27%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 2.38 | Draw 3.23 | Udinese 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Genoa are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Genoa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Genoa 50% | Udinese 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Friday 4 Apr 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 42% | Draw 31% | Udinese 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Genoa 1.28 / Udinese 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.960 / def 0.931 | Udinese attack 0.922 / def 1.043 | league avg home 1.284 / away 1.159 • Poisson stance: Genoa (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Udinese xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Udinese kick off?
Genoa vs Udinese kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 4 April 2025 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Udinese?
Genoa 1 - 0 Udinese.
Where is Genoa vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Udinese part of?
Genoa vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 42% chance of winning, Udinese a 27% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Genoa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Genoa and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Udinese?
Record (5 meetings): Genoa 2W | Draws 3 | Udinese 0W.
What form are Genoa and Udinese in?
Genoa (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Udinese (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Genoa's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Udinese's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. The same calculation in reverse, Udinese's attack versus Genoa's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
42%
2.40
31%
3.21
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.28
0.99
Udinese xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
15%
6.50
8%
13.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Genoa and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Genoa and 0.99 for Udinese, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Genoa come into this having played 68 games, going 20W 24D 24L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-L.
On the other side, Udinese sit at 1.13 PPG from 68 outings (17W 26D 25L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Genoa on 1.24 PPG, Udinese on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Genoa's home form reads 12W 13D 9L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Udinese have taken 1.18 points per game from 34 outings (9W 13D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
Genoa are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.07 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 68 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Current Season
Udinese
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Udinese in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 20W 24D 24L in their last 68 games (1.24 PPG), while Udinese have gone 17W 26D 25L in their last 68 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Udinese away?
Genoa's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.44 PPG; Udinese away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Genoa's record when hosting Udinese specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Genoa
3
Draws
1
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Udinese?
From 8 meetings on record, Genoa have won 4, Udinese have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when Genoa 0-2 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Udinese?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 56%, Udinese 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Genoa) and 38% (Udinese).
On the defensive side: Udinese in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Udinese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Genoa's games and 59% of Udinese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Genoa vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Genoa's recent games and 38% of Udinese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Udinese tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Udinese in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Genoa edge out Udinese 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa beat Udinese 1-0 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.28 xG and Udinese 0.99 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Udinese landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.96 / defence 0.93 against Udinese attack 0.92 / defence 1.04, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 42% | Draw 31% | Udinese 27%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 40%, Udinese 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Udinese's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genoa 1.24 PPG, Udinese 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genoa win broke the near-deadlock. Genoa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Udinese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.