Genoa 1-0 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Genoa at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Genoa face Udinese.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Udinese travel to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris to take on Genoa in Serie A (matchday 31). The game is scheduled for Friday 4 April 2025 at 20:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Genoa have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Genoa's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Udinese — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Udinese away from home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Genoa 1.20 PPG, Udinese 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Genoa have won 2, Udinese 0, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.6 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 1 Dec 2024, ended Genoa 2–0 Udinese — a Genoa win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Genoa trading profile (last 68 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 53%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Udinese trading profile (last 68 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 53% versus Udinese 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 40% | Udinese 43%). Note also that Udinese surrender HT leads in 54% of cases while Genoa recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 53% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.28 xG and Udinese 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.960 / defence 0.931 | Udinese attack 0.922 / defence 1.043. League average goals — home 1.284 / away 1.159. Data: built from Genoa's last 68 games and Udinese's last 68.
Result probabilities: Genoa 42% | Draw 31% | Udinese 27%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 2.40 | Draw 3.21 | Udinese 3.67. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Genoa are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Genoa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 60% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Genoa's last 10 home games and Udinese's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Genoa 50% (last 10 home games) | Udinese 80% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, matchday 31 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Friday 4 April 2025 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 42% | Draw 31% | Udinese 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Genoa 1.28 / Udinese 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.960 / def 0.931 | Udinese attack 0.922 / def 1.043 | league avg home 1.284 / away 1.159 • Poisson stance: Genoa (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Udinese xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Genoa vs Udinese FAQs
What time does Genoa vs Udinese kick off?
Genoa vs Udinese kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Friday 4 April 2025 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Udinese?
Genoa 1 - 0 Udinese.
Where is Genoa vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Udinese part of?
Genoa vs Udinese is a Serie A fixture (matchday 31) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 42% chance of winning, Udinese a 27% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Genoa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Genoa and Udinese will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Genoa vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Genoa's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Udinese's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. The same calculation in reverse, Udinese's attack versus Genoa's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Genoa's last 68 games and Udinese's last 68 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
42%
2.40
31%
3.21
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.28
0.99
Udinese xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
15%
6.50
8%
13.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Genoa vs Udinese Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Genoa and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Genoa and 0.99 for Udinese, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Genoa come into this having played 68 games, going 20W 24D 24L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-L.
On the other side, Udinese sit at 1.13 PPG from 68 outings (17W 26D 25L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Genoa on 1.24 PPG, Udinese on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Genoa's home form reads 12W 13D 9L across their last 34 home games, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Udinese have taken 1.18 points per game from their last 34 away games (9W 13D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
Genoa are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.07 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Current Season
Udinese
Current Season
Genoa (Home) vs Udinese (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Genoa
Current Season
Udinese
Current Season
❓ Genoa vs Udinese Form FAQs
What form are Genoa and Udinese in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 20W 24D 24L in their last 68 games (1.24 PPG), while Udinese have gone 17W 26D 25L in their last 68 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Udinese away?
Genoa's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.44 PPG; Udinese away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from November 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 20 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Genoa's record when hosting Udinese specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Genoa
3
Draws
1
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Genoa vs Udinese H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Udinese?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Genoa have won 4, Udinese have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Udinese last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 March 2026: Genoa 0-2 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Udinese?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 64% of those situations.
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 56%, Udinese 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Genoa) and 38% (Udinese).
On the defensive side: Udinese in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Genoa vs Udinese Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Genoa and Udinese matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Genoa's games and 59% of Udinese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Genoa and Udinese matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Genoa's recent games and 38% of Udinese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Udinese matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Genoa's recent matches and 71% of Udinese's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Genoa edge out Udinese 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa beat Udinese 1-0 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.28 xG and Udinese 0.99 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Udinese landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.96 / defence 0.93 against Udinese attack 0.92 / defence 1.04, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 42% | Draw 31% | Udinese 27%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 40%, Udinese 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Udinese's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genoa 1.24 PPG, Udinese 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genoa win broke the near-deadlock. Genoa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Udinese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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