AS Roma 1-3 Bologna – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates AS Roma at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as AS Roma face Bologna.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

AS Roma host Bologna at Stadio Olimpico in Serie A (matchday 33). Kick-off is Monday 22 April 2024 at 18:30 UK time.

Form Guide

AS Roma — last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

At home, AS Roma have gone 7W 2D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Bologna stand at 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.30. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.

On the road, Bologna have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — AS Roma at 2.30 PPG versus Bologna's 2.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of AS Roma's games and 70% of Bologna's (from AS Roma's last 10 home games and Bologna's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, AS Roma have won 1, Bologna 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

Scoring has been limited in the 5 H2H matches in our data, averaging 0.8 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 17 Dec 2023, ended AS Roma 0–2 Bologna — a Bologna win.

With a balanced win record and just 0.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

AS Roma in-play tendencies (last 69 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).

Bologna in-play tendencies (last 69 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 45%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 52% versus Bologna 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 49% | Bologna 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.45 xG and Bologna 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.272 / defence 0.861 | Bologna attack 0.937 / defence 0.856. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.190. AS Roma carry an above-average attack rating of 1.272 — their 1.45 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from AS Roma's last 69 games and Bologna's last 70.

Result probabilities: AS Roma 48% | Draw 27% | Bologna 25%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 2.08 | Draw 3.69 | Bologna 4.04. AS Roma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is AS Roma at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Roma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 57% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 0.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: AS Roma 60% (last 10 home games) | Bologna 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights