Empoli 1-0 Napoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Napoli at 55% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Empoli face Napoli.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Empoli host Napoli at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena in Serie A (matchday 33). Kick-off is Saturday 20 April 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Empoli — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Empoli's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Napoli have recorded 3W 5D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D L W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, Napoli have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Empoli) versus 1.40 (Napoli). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Empoli, 2 for Napoli and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 12 Nov 2023, ended Empoli 1–0 Napoli — a Empoli win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Empoli in-play tendencies (last 70 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Napoli in-play tendencies (last 70 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 41% versus Napoli 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 36% | Napoli 54%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Empoli surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Napoli have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 46% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.01 xG and Napoli 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.838 / defence 1.112 | Napoli attack 1.331 / defence 0.889. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.198. Napoli have an above-average attack rating of 1.331, which lifts their away xG to 1.77. Data: built from Empoli's last 70 games and Napoli's last 70.
Result probabilities: Empoli 21% | Draw 25% | Napoli 55%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 4.78 | Draw 4.07 | Napoli 1.83. The model has a clear lean to Napoli (55%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Napoli are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Empoli 40% (last 10 home games) | Napoli 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Napoli | Competition: Serie A, matchday 33 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 20 April 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 21% | Draw 25% | Napoli 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Empoli 1.01 / Napoli 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.838 / def 1.112 | Napoli attack 1.331 / def 0.889 | league avg home 1.364 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Napoli (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Napoli xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Empoli vs Napoli FAQs
What time does Empoli vs Napoli kick off?
Empoli vs Napoli kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena.
What was the final score in Empoli vs Napoli?
Empoli 1 - 0 Napoli.
Where is Empoli vs Napoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena.
What competition is Empoli vs Napoli part of?
Empoli vs Napoli is a Serie A fixture (matchday 33) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Napoli?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 21% chance of winning, Napoli a 55% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Napoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Napoli?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Empoli and Napoli will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Empoli vs Napoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Empoli's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Napoli's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. The same calculation in reverse, Napoli's attack versus Empoli's defence, projects 1.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Empoli's last 70 games and Napoli's last 70 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Napoli Win
21%
4.78
25%
4.07
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Empoli xG
Total xG
2.79
1.77
Napoli xG
4.78
21%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
17%
5.89
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
4%
28.16
20%
5.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 10.9 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Empoli vs Napoli Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Napoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Empoli and Napoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Empoli and 1.77 for Napoli, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Napoli?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Empoli come into this having played 70 games, going 17W 20D 33L for 1.01 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Napoli sit at 1.99 PPG from 70 outings (41W 16D 13L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-D across their last five.
Napoli carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.98 PPG clear of Empoli — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Empoli's home form reads 11W 8D 16L across their last 35 home games, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Napoli have taken 2.03 points per game from their last 35 away games (21W 8D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Napoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Empoli are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Napoli are on 1.81 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Last 70 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Current Season
Napoli
Current Season
Empoli (Home) vs Napoli (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Empoli
Current Season
Napoli
Current Season
❓ Empoli vs Napoli Form FAQs
What form are Empoli and Napoli in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 17W 20D 33L in their last 70 games (1.01 PPG), while Napoli have gone 41W 16D 13L in their last 70 (1.99 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Napoli away?
Napoli's away record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 1.17 PPG; Napoli away: 2.03 PPG.
Have Empoli or Napoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Empoli have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Napoli in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent in our data was on 14 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Napoli have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 14 Apr 2025, when Napoli won Napoli 3-0 Empoli.
Empoli's record when hosting Napoli specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Empoli
0
Draws
4
Napoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Empoli vs Napoli H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Napoli?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Empoli have won 4, Napoli have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Napoli last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 April 2025: Napoli 3-0 Empoli.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Empoli see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Napoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Empoli 34%, Napoli 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Empoli) and 49% (Napoli).
On the defensive side: Napoli in 37%; Empoli have failed to score in 46% of games; Napoli in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Napoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Empoli vs Napoli Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Empoli and Napoli matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 34% of Empoli's recent matches and 46% of Napoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Empoli and Napoli matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Empoli's recent games and 49% of Napoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Empoli and Napoli matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 54% of Empoli's recent matches and 69% of Napoli's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Empoli defy the odds to beat Napoli 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Empoli beat Napoli 1-0 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.01 xG and Napoli 1.77 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Napoli landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.84 / defence 1.11 against Napoli attack 1.33 / defence 0.89, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 21% | Draw 25% | Napoli 55%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Empoli win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 36%, Napoli 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not.
Napoli's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 1.99 PPG against 1.01. Form was overturned, with Empoli winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Empoli (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Napoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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