Bologna 0-0 Monza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bologna at 62% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bologna vs Monza encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Bologna welcome Monza to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in Serie A (matchday 32). Kick-off is Saturday 13 April 2024 at 20:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Bologna have gone 8W 1D 1L — a 2.50 PPG return. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Bologna at home: 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Monza — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Monza's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Bologna carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.50 vs 1.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Bologna have won 1, Monza 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.3 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 28 Sep 2023, ended Bologna 0–0 Monza — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Bologna trading profile (last 69 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 45%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Monza trading profile (last 69 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 55% versus Monza 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 49% | Monza 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.73 xG and Monza 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 1.255 / defence 0.643 | Monza attack 0.927 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.168. Bologna carry an above-average attack rating of 1.255 — their 1.73 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Bologna have a tight defence (rating 0.643), which is pulling Monza's projected output down. Data: built from Bologna's last 69 games and Monza's last 69.
Result probabilities: Bologna 62% | Draw 24% | Monza 14%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 1.62 | Draw 4.10 | Monza 7.11. The model has a clear lean to Bologna (62%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bologna as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bologna 20% (last 10 home games) | Monza 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Monza | Competition: Serie A, matchday 32 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Saturday 13 April 2024 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 62% | Draw 24% | Monza 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Bologna 1.73 / Monza 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 1.255 / def 0.643 | Monza attack 0.927 / def 1.004 | league avg home 1.370 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Bologna (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Monza xG
42%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bologna vs Monza FAQs
What time does Bologna vs Monza kick off?
Bologna vs Monza kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Monza?
Bologna 0 - 0 Monza.
Where is Bologna vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Monza part of?
Bologna vs Monza is a Serie A fixture (matchday 32) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 62% chance of winning, Monza a 14% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Bologna and Monza will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Bologna vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bologna's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against Monza's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.73. The same calculation in reverse, Monza's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 0.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bologna's last 69 games and Monza's last 69 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.2%), 1-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
62%
1.62
24%
4.10
14%
7.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.42
0.70
Monza xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
7.11
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
50%
2.01
18%
5.62
Win to Nil
31%
3.26
3%
39.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 10.7 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.2 | 9.2 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.6 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bologna vs Monza Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Bologna and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Bologna and 0.70 for Monza, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Monza?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bologna come into this having played 69 games, going 30W 22D 17L for 1.62 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-D.
On the other side, Monza sit at 1.36 PPG from 69 outings (25W 19D 25L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bologna on 1.62 PPG, Monza on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Bologna's home form reads 19W 10D 5L across their last 34 home games, a 1.97 PPG return.
Away from home, Monza have taken 1.32 points per game from their last 34 away games (12W 9D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bologna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bologna are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 1.19 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 69 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Current Season
Monza
Current Season
Bologna (Home) vs Monza (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bologna
Current Season
Monza
Current Season
❓ Bologna vs Monza Form FAQs
What form are Bologna and Monza in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 30W 22D 17L in their last 69 games (1.62 PPG), while Monza have gone 25W 19D 25L in their last 69 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Monza away?
Bologna's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.97 PPG; Monza away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Bologna or Monza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Monza in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 7 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from October 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 31 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Bologna have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
Bologna's record when hosting Monza specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Bologna
2
Draws
1
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Bologna vs Monza H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Monza?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Bologna have won 4, Monza have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Monza last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 October 2026: Bologna 2-1 Monza.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Monza?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 62% of those situations.
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 38%, Monza 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Bologna) and 44% (Monza).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Monza in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bologna vs Monza Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bologna and Monza matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Bologna's recent matches and 41% of Monza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bologna and Monza matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Bologna's recent games and 44% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Monza matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Bologna's recent matches and 68% of Monza's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bologna's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna and Monza finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.73 xG and Monza 0.70 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bologna fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 1.25 / defence 0.64 against Monza attack 0.93 / defence 1.00, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 62% | Draw 24% | Monza 14%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 49%, Monza 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Monza's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bologna 1.62 PPG, Monza 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bologna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward. Monza (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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