Shamrock Rovers 1-0 Longford Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers at 56% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shamrock Rovers vs Longford Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Longford Town travel to Tallaght Stadium to take on Shamrock Rovers in Premier Division (matchday 23). The game is scheduled for Sunday 8 August 2021 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Shamrock Rovers stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Shamrock Rovers's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Longford Town — last 10 games: 0W 4D 6L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Longford Town away from home: 0W 5D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Shamrock Rovers are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.30 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Shamrock Rovers's last 10 home games and Longford Town's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Shamrock Rovers, 0 for Longford Town and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 May 2021, ended Shamrock Rovers 1–0 Longford Town — a Shamrock Rovers win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Shamrock Rovers in-play tendencies (last 21 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Longford Town in-play tendencies (last 21 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shamrock Rovers 67% versus Longford Town 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shamrock Rovers 48% | Longford Town 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shamrock Rovers 1.64 xG and Longford Town 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.194 / defence 1.026 | Longford Town attack 0.715 / defence 1.332. League average goals — home 1.033 / away 1.188. Longford Town's defence rating of 1.332 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Shamrock Rovers's projected output up. Longford Town's attack rating of 0.715 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.87. Data: built from Shamrock Rovers's last 21 games and Longford Town's last 22.
Result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 56% | Draw 25% | Longford Town 20%. Fair-value odds: Shamrock Rovers 1.80 | Draw 4.07 | Longford Town 5.03. The model has a clear lean to Shamrock Rovers (56%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Shamrock Rovers 80% (last 10 home games) | Longford Town 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shamrock Rovers vs Longford Town | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 23 | Venue: Tallaght Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 8 August 2021 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 56% | Draw 25% | Longford Town 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Shamrock Rovers 1.64 / Longford Town 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.194 / def 1.026 | Longford Town attack 0.715 / def 1.332 | league avg home 1.033 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Shamrock Rovers xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Longford Town xG
47%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shamrock Rovers vs Longford Town FAQs
What time does Shamrock Rovers vs Longford Town kick off?
Shamrock Rovers vs Longford Town kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 8 August 2021 at Tallaght Stadium.
What was the final score in Shamrock Rovers vs Longford Town?
Shamrock Rovers 1 - 0 Longford Town.
Where is Shamrock Rovers vs Longford Town being played?
The match is being played at Tallaght Stadium.
What competition is Shamrock Rovers vs Longford Town part of?
Shamrock Rovers vs Longford Town is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 23) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shamrock Rovers vs Longford Town?
Our statistical model gives Shamrock Rovers a 56% chance of winning, Longford Town a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shamrock Rovers vs Longford Town?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Shamrock Rovers and Longford Town will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Shamrock Rovers vs Longford Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Shamrock Rovers's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Longford Town's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. The same calculation in reverse, Longford Town's attack versus Shamrock Rovers's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Shamrock Rovers's last 21 games and Longford Town's last 22 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 2-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
56%
1.80
25%
4.07
20%
5.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Shamrock Rovers xG
Total xG
2.51
0.87
Longford Town xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
5.03
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
19%
5.16
Win to Nil
23%
4.30
4%
25.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 11.6 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shamrock Rovers vs Longford Town Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shamrock Rovers vs Longford Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Shamrock Rovers and Longford Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Shamrock Rovers and 0.87 for Longford Town, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Shamrock Rovers vs Longford Town?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Shamrock Rovers's recent record stands at 13W 5D 3L from 21 games, a 2.10 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-W in the last five.
Longford Town, meanwhile, have gone 0W 8D 13L across 21 games — 0.38 PPG, with D-L-D-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shamrock Rovers by 1.72 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Longford Town heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Shamrock Rovers have managed 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Longford Town's away record stands at 0W 5D 5L across their last 10 away games, a 0.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shamrock Rovers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Shamrock Rovers are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Longford Town are on 0.62 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shamrock Rovers have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 21 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shamrock Rovers
Blended
Longford Town
Blended
Shamrock Rovers (Home) vs Longford Town (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shamrock Rovers
Blended
Longford Town
Blended
❓ Shamrock Rovers vs Longford Town Form FAQs
What form are Shamrock Rovers and Longford Town in coming into this match?
Shamrock Rovers have gone 13W 5D 3L in their last 21 games (2.10 PPG), while Longford Town have gone 0W 8D 13L in their last 21 (0.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shamrock Rovers at home or Longford Town away?
Shamrock Rovers's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shamrock Rovers at home: 2.10 PPG; Longford Town away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2021. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent in our data was on 23 October 2021, some 5 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Shamrock Rovers have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Shamrock Rovers's record when hosting Longford Town specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Shamrock Rovers
0
Draws
0
Longford Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Shamrock Rovers vs Longford Town H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Longford Town?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Shamrock Rovers have won 4, Longford Town have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shamrock Rovers and Longford Town last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 October 2021: Longford Town 0-1 Shamrock Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Shamrock Rovers and Longford Town?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shamrock Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Longford Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Shamrock Rovers at 80%, Longford Town at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Shamrock Rovers) and 40% (Longford Town).
On the defensive side: Longford Town in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shamrock Rovers home games / Longford Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shamrock Rovers vs Longford Town Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shamrock Rovers and Longford Town matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Shamrock Rovers's games and 70% of Longford Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Shamrock Rovers and Longford Town matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Shamrock Rovers's recent games and 40% of Longford Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shamrock Rovers and Longford Town matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Shamrock Rovers's recent matches and 80% of Longford Town's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shamrock Rovers edge out Longford Town 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shamrock Rovers beat Longford Town 1-0 at Tallaght Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shamrock Rovers 1.64 xG and Longford Town 0.87 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Longford Town landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shamrock Rovers attack 1.19 / defence 1.03 against Longford Town attack 0.71 / defence 1.33, drawn from 21/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shamrock Rovers 56% | Draw 25% | Longford Town 20%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shamrock Rovers 48%, Longford Town 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Longford Town's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 0.38. That form edge translated into the three points. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Longford Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.