Dundalk 1-4 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees St Patrick's Athl. travel to Oriel Park to take on Dundalk. The game is scheduled for Sunday 8 August 2021, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dundalk stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dundalk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Oriel Park, Dundalk have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Premier Division games this season, St Patrick's Athl. have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for St Patrick's Athl., so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Dundalk 1.70 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Trading Patterns
Dundalk in-play and half-time data (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
St Patrick's Athl. in-play and half-time data (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 88% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dundalk 70% and St Patrick's Athl. 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 50% | St Patrick's Athl. 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 1.31 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 0.909 / defence 1.148 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.989 / defence 1.396. League average goals — home 1.033 / away 1.188. St Patrick's Athl. bring a strong defensive rating of 1.396 — this is suppressing Dundalk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Dundalk games / 22 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dundalk 36% | Draw 26% | St Patrick's Athl. 38%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | St Patrick's Athl. 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is St Patrick's Athl. at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Dundalk 70% | St Patrick's Athl. 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Aug 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 36% | Draw 26% | St Patrick's Athl. 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Dundalk 1.31 / St Patrick's Athl. 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 0.909 / def 1.148 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.989 / def 1.396 | league avg home 1.033 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
1.35
St Patrick's Athl. xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 8 August 2021 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Dundalk 1 - 4 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 36% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl.?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. in?
Dundalk (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Dundalk's attack at 0.91x the league average against St Patrick's Athl.'s defence at 1.40x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, St Patrick's Athl.'s attack versus Dundalk's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
36%
2.77
26%
3.84
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Dundalk xG
Total xG
2.66
1.35
St Patrick's Athl. xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
26%
3.86
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
9%
10.69
10%
9.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.4 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.1 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Dundalk and 1.35 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dundalk come into this having played 20 games, going 7W 6D 7L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-W. The sample for Dundalk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, St Patrick's Athl. sit at 1.85 PPG from 20 outings (11W 4D 5L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for St Patrick's Athl. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
St Patrick's Athl. carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Dundalk — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Dundalk's home form reads 4W 2D 4L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, St Patrick's Athl. have taken 1.30 points per game from 10 outings (3W 4D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.85 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of St Patrick's Athl.'s season.
Goals in Recent Form
Dundalk are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; St Patrick's Athl. are on 1.65 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dundalk have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Defensively: St Patrick's Athl. in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Blended
St Patrick's Athl.
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 7W 6D 7L in their last 20 games (1.35 PPG), while St Patrick's Athl. have gone 11W 4D 5L in their last 20 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or St Patrick's Athl. away?
Dundalk's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 1.40 PPG; St Patrick's Athl. away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Dundalk or St Patrick's Athl. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dundalk have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, St Patrick's Athl. in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 24 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Feb 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dundalk's record when hosting St Patrick's Athl. specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Dundalk
3
Draws
5
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 10 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 2, St Patrick's Athl. have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 24 July 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. 1-1 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl.?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Dundalk at 70%, St Patrick's Athl. at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Dundalk) and 50% (St Patrick's Athl.).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dundalk play St Patrick's Athl.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Dundalk's games and 80% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Dundalk's recent games and 50% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. tend to score early?
Dundalk have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, St Patrick's Athl. in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant St Patrick's Athl. run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Dundalk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat Dundalk 1-4 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 1.31 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.35 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. St Patrick's Athl. outscored their 1.35 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 0.91 / defence 1.15 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.99 / defence 1.40, drawn from 20/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 36% | Draw 26% | St Patrick's Athl. 38%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 50%, St Patrick's Athl. 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, St Patrick's Athl. arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.35. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Dundalk (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.