Cork City 0-1 Derry City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Derry City (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Cork City face Derry City.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 35 sees Derry City travel to Turner's Cross to take on Cork City. The game is scheduled for Friday 27 October 2023, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cork City stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Premier Division matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Cork City's home record at Turner's Cross: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier Division appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Cork City are significantly better at Turner's Cross than their overall form suggests.
Derry City — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Derry City have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Derry City — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The previous 3 encounters between these sides heavily favour Derry City, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Cork City.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Jun 2023, ended 0–2 with Derry City winning.
It is worth noting that Derry City have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Cork City trading profile (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Derry City trading profile (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cork City 48% versus Derry City 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cork City 54% | Derry City 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cork City 0.91 xG and Derry City 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cork City attack 0.801 / defence 1.129 | Derry City attack 1.249 / defence 0.770. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 0.978. Derry City's defence strength of 0.770 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Derry City have an above-average attack strength of 1.249 — the away xG of 1.38 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 33 Cork City games / 70 Derry City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cork City 24% | Draw 28% | Derry City 47%. Fair-value odds: Cork City 4.17 | Draw 3.57 | Derry City 2.13. Derry City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Derry City as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derry City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Cork City 50% | Derry City 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cork City vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Turner's Cross • Kick-off: Friday 27 Oct 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cork City 24% | Draw 28% | Derry City 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Cork City 0.91 / Derry City 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Cork City attack 0.801 / def 1.129 | Derry City attack 1.249 / def 0.770 | league avg home 1.475 / away 0.978 • Poisson stance: Derry City (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Cork City xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Derry City xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cork City vs Derry City kick off?
Cork City vs Derry City kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 27 October 2023 at Turner's Cross.
What was the final score in Cork City vs Derry City?
Cork City 0 - 1 Derry City.
Where is Cork City vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Turner's Cross.
What competition is Cork City vs Derry City part of?
Cork City vs Derry City is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Cork City vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives Cork City a 24% chance of winning, Derry City a 47% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cork City vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Cork City and Derry City will score (BTTS).
Will Cork City vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cork City and Derry City?
Record (3 meetings): Cork City 0W | Draws 0 | Derry City 3W.
What form are Cork City and Derry City in?
Cork City (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Derry City (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cork City's attack at 0.80x the league average against Derry City's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 0.91 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Derry City's attack versus Cork City's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.3%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
24%
4.13
28%
3.51
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Cork City xG
Total xG
2.29
1.38
Derry City xG
4.13
24%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
6%
16.41
19%
5.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 14.0 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cork City vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Cork City and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Cork City and 1.38 for Derry City, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Cork City vs Derry City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cork City's recent record stands at 8W 6D 19L from 33 games, a 0.91 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-W in the last five.
Derry City, meanwhile, have gone 16W 10D 7L across 33 games — 1.76 PPG, with D-L-W-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Derry City by 0.85 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cork City heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cork City have managed 6W 3D 7L from 16 games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.91 PPG overall — Cork City are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Derry City's away record stands at 8W 4D 4L across 16 trips, a 1.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derry City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cork City are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Derry City are on 1.58 scored and 0.70 conceded.
Defensively: Derry City in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cork City
Current Season
Derry City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cork City and Derry City in coming into this match?
Cork City have gone 8W 6D 19L in their last 33 games (0.91 PPG), while Derry City have gone 16W 10D 7L in their last 33 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cork City at home or Derry City away?
Derry City's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cork City at home: 1.31 PPG; Derry City away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Cork City or Derry City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cork City have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Derry City in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cork City and Derry City runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. They last met on 1 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Cork City's record when hosting Derry City specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Cork City
1
Draws
7
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cork City and Derry City?
From 8 meetings on record, Cork City have won 0, Derry City have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cork City and Derry City last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2025, when Cork City 0-1 Derry City.
Who has won more matches between Cork City and Derry City?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cork City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cork City 50%, Derry City 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Cork City) and 50% (Derry City).
On the defensive side: Cork City keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Derry City in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cork City home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cork City play Derry City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Cork City's recent matches and 44% of Derry City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cork City vs Derry City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Cork City's recent games and 50% of Derry City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cork City and Derry City tend to score early?
Cork City have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Derry City in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Derry City edge out Cork City 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derry City beat Cork City 0-1 at Turner's Cross, Regular Season - 35, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cork City 0.91 xG and Derry City 1.38 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cork City fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cork City attack 0.80 / defence 1.13 against Derry City attack 1.25 / defence 0.77, drawn from 33/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cork City 24% | Draw 28% | Derry City 47%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cork City 54%, Derry City 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cork City's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Derry City's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Derry City arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Cork City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Derry City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.