St Patrick's Athl. 0-2 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as St Patrick's Athl. face Shamrock Rovers.

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Match Analysis

St Patrick's Athl. host Shamrock Rovers at Richmond Park in Premier Division (matchday 35). Kick-off is Friday 27 October 2023 at 21:00 UK time.

Form Guide

St Patrick's Athl. — last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

At home, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 7W 2D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.

Across their last 10 games, Shamrock Rovers have recorded 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

When travelling, Shamrock Rovers have posted 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: St Patrick's Athl. 2.00 PPG, Shamrock Rovers 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

In-Play Profile

St Patrick's Athl. in-play tendencies (last 69 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Shamrock Rovers in-play tendencies (last 69 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 48% versus Shamrock Rovers 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 54% | Shamrock Rovers 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.12 xG and Shamrock Rovers 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.083 / defence 0.878 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.007 / defence 0.704. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 0.981. Shamrock Rovers bring a tight defence (rating 0.704, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling St Patrick's Athl.'s projected output down. Data: built from St Patrick's Athl.'s last 70 games and Shamrock Rovers's last 69.

Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 41% | Draw 31% | Shamrock Rovers 28%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 2.42 | Draw 3.27 | Shamrock Rovers 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, St Patrick's Athl. are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.99 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: St Patrick's Athl. 50% (last 10 home games) | Shamrock Rovers 30% (last 10 away games).

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