UCD 0-2 Cork City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates UCD at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as UCD face Cork City.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
UCD welcome Cork City to UCD Bowl in Premier Division (matchday 34). Kick-off is Sunday 22 October 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, UCD have gone 0W 2D 8L — a 0.20 PPG return. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters, UCD have posted 1W 1D 8L from their last 10 home games — 0.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Cork City stand at 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Cork City away from home: 1W 1D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — UCD at 0.20 PPG versus Cork City's 0.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for UCD, 1 for Cork City and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 11 Aug 2023, ended UCD 1–1 Cork City — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
UCD trading profile (last 32 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 59% of games.
Cork City trading profile (last 32 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — UCD 38% versus Cork City 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (UCD 66% | Cork City 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects UCD 1.46 xG and Cork City 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: UCD attack 0.660 / defence 1.529 | Cork City attack 0.787 / defence 1.502. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 0.996. UCD's attack rating of 0.660 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.46. Cork City's defence rating of 1.502 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing UCD's projected output up. Cork City's attack rating of 0.787 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.20. UCD's defence rating of 1.529 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cork City's projected output up. Data: built from UCD's last 69 games and Cork City's last 32.
Result probabilities: UCD 42% | Draw 27% | Cork City 30%. Fair-value odds: UCD 2.37 | Draw 3.65 | Cork City 3.30. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is UCD at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on UCD offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — low conviction — though recent form (UCD's last 10 home games and Cork City's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: UCD 40% (last 10 home games) | Cork City 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: UCD vs Cork City | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 34 | Venue: UCD Bowl • Kick-off: Sunday 22 October 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: UCD 42% | Draw 27% | Cork City 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG UCD 1.46 / Cork City 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: UCD attack 0.660 / def 1.529 | Cork City attack 0.787 / def 1.502 | league avg home 1.470 / away 0.996 • Poisson stance: UCD (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
UCD xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Cork City xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ UCD vs Cork City FAQs
What time does UCD vs Cork City kick off?
UCD vs Cork City kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 22 October 2023 at UCD Bowl.
What was the final score in UCD vs Cork City?
UCD 0 - 2 Cork City.
Where is UCD vs Cork City being played?
The match is being played at UCD Bowl.
What competition is UCD vs Cork City part of?
UCD vs Cork City is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 34) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win UCD vs Cork City?
Our statistical model gives UCD a 42% chance of winning, Cork City a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making UCD the favourite.
Will both teams score in UCD vs Cork City?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both UCD and Cork City will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will UCD vs Cork City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
UCD's attacking strength (0.66x league average) is weighed against Cork City's defensive record (1.50x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. The same calculation in reverse, Cork City's attack versus UCD's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from UCD's last 69 games and Cork City's last 32 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
UCD Win
42%
2.37
27%
3.65
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
UCD xG
Total xG
2.66
1.20
Cork City xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
23%
4.29
Win to Nil
13%
7.85
7%
14.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.3 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.9 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ UCD vs Cork City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for UCD vs Cork City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are UCD and Cork City expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for UCD and 1.20 for Cork City, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for UCD vs Cork City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
UCD's recent record stands at 2W 4D 26L from 32 games, a 0.31 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five.
Cork City, meanwhile, have gone 7W 6D 19L across 32 games — 0.84 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cork City by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over UCD heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, UCD have managed 2W 3D 11L from their last 16 home games — 0.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cork City's away record stands at 1W 3D 12L across their last 16 away games, a 0.38 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.84 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cork City's recent record.
The Goals Picture
UCD are averaging 0.47 goals scored and 2.66 conceded per game recently; Cork City are on 1.03 scored and 1.84 conceded.
Last 32 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
UCD
Current Season
Cork City
Current Season
UCD (Home) vs Cork City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
UCD
Current Season
Cork City
Current Season
❓ UCD vs Cork City Form FAQs
What form are UCD and Cork City in coming into this match?
UCD have gone 2W 4D 26L in their last 32 games (0.31 PPG), while Cork City have gone 7W 6D 19L in their last 32 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — UCD at home or Cork City away?
UCD's home record (0.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — UCD at home: 0.56 PPG; Cork City away: 0.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2023. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent in our data was on 22 October 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 Mar 2023, when Cork City won Cork City 4-0 UCD.
UCD's record when hosting Cork City specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
UCD
1
Draws
2
Cork City
Recent Meetings
❓ UCD vs Cork City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between UCD and Cork City?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, UCD have won 1, Cork City have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did UCD and Cork City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 October 2023: UCD 0-2 Cork City.
Who has won more matches between UCD and Cork City?
Cork City have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
UCD are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Cork City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — UCD 38%, Cork City 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for UCD and 69% for Cork City. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: UCD have failed to score in 56% of games; Cork City in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = UCD home games / Cork City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ UCD vs Cork City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in UCD and Cork City matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of UCD's recent matches and 50% of Cork City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are UCD and Cork City matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of UCD's matches and 69% of Cork City's.
Do UCD and Cork City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of UCD's recent matches and 88% of Cork City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cork City cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over UCD.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cork City beat UCD 0-2 at UCD Bowl, Regular Season - 34, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting UCD 1.46 xG and Cork City 1.20 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. UCD fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Cork City outscored their 1.20 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of UCD attack 0.66 / defence 1.53 against Cork City attack 0.79 / defence 1.50, drawn from 69/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it UCD 42% | Draw 27% | Cork City 30%, with UCD to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Cork City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (UCD 66%, Cork City 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
UCD's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 59% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cork City's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Cork City arrived the stronger side — 0.84 PPG against 0.31. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Cork City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.