Union Berlin 2-2 1. FC Heidenheim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union Berlin at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union Berlin vs 1. FC Heidenheim fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Union Berlin and 1. FC Heidenheim meet at Stadion An der Alten Försterei in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 February 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
Union Berlin (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union Berlin at Stadion An der Alten Försterei this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
1. FC Heidenheim have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, 1. FC Heidenheim have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Union Berlin 0W, 1. FC Heidenheim 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2023, ended 0–1 with 1. FC Heidenheim winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Union Berlin half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
1. FC Heidenheim half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Berlin 43% versus 1. FC Heidenheim 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 48% | 1. FC Heidenheim 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.40 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.810 / defence 0.910 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.925 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.660 / away 1.213. Data: 56 Union Berlin games / 22 1. FC Heidenheim games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 44% | Draw 30% | 1. FC Heidenheim 26%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | 1. FC Heidenheim 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union Berlin at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union Berlin if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Union Berlin 30% | 1. FC Heidenheim 80%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs 1. FC Heidenheim | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Feb 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 44% | Draw 30% | 1. FC Heidenheim 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Union Berlin 1.40 / 1. FC Heidenheim 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.810 / def 0.910 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.925 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.660 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.02
1. FC Heidenheim xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs 1. FC Heidenheim kick off?
Union Berlin vs 1. FC Heidenheim kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 24 February 2024 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Union Berlin 2 - 2 1. FC Heidenheim.
Where is Union Berlin vs 1. FC Heidenheim being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs 1. FC Heidenheim part of?
Union Berlin vs 1. FC Heidenheim is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 44% chance of winning, 1. FC Heidenheim a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Union Berlin and 1. FC Heidenheim will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs 1. FC Heidenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and 1. FC Heidenheim?
Record (1 meetings): Union Berlin 0W | Draws 0 | 1. FC Heidenheim 1W.
What form are Union Berlin and 1. FC Heidenheim in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. 1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Union Berlin's attack at 0.81x the league average against 1. FC Heidenheim's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — 1. FC Heidenheim's attack (0.93x) against Union Berlin's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 56/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
44%
2.27
30%
3.31
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
2.42
1.02
1. FC Heidenheim xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
25%
4.07
Win to Nil
16%
6.29
6%
15.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.7 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and 1. FC Heidenheim expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.02 for 1. FC Heidenheim, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Union Berlin's recent record stands at 25W 11D 20L from 56 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Heidenheim, meanwhile, have gone 26W 16D 14L across 56 games — 1.68 PPG, with D-D-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for 1. FC Heidenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.54 PPG for Union Berlin against 1.68 for 1. FC Heidenheim. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Union Berlin have managed 16W 7D 4L from 27 games — 2.04 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.54 PPG overall — Union Berlin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
1. FC Heidenheim's away record stands at 8W 9D 10L across 27 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.68 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of 1. FC Heidenheim's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Berlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Union Berlin are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Heidenheim are on 1.75 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Defensively: 1. FC Heidenheim in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Blended
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and 1. FC Heidenheim in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 25W 11D 20L in their last 56 games (1.54 PPG), while 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 26W 16D 14L in their last 56 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or 1. FC Heidenheim away?
Union Berlin's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 2.04 PPG; 1. FC Heidenheim away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Union Berlin or 1. FC Heidenheim been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union Berlin have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, 1. FC Heidenheim in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
1. FC Heidenheim have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Heidenheim won 0-3 on 10 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union Berlin have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Heidenheim — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Union Berlin
1
Draws
5
1. FC Heidenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and 1. FC Heidenheim?
From 6 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 0, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and 1. FC Heidenheim last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when 1. FC Heidenheim 3-1 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and 1. FC Heidenheim?
1. FC Heidenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 44%, 1. FC Heidenheim 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Union Berlin) and 52% (1. FC Heidenheim).
On the defensive side: Union Berlin keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Union Berlin have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / 1. FC Heidenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play 1. FC Heidenheim?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Union Berlin's recent matches and 59% of 1. FC Heidenheim's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union Berlin vs 1. FC Heidenheim usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Union Berlin's recent games and 52% of 1. FC Heidenheim's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union Berlin and 1. FC Heidenheim tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, 1. FC Heidenheim in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union Berlin and 1. FC Heidenheim share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin and 1. FC Heidenheim finished level at 2-2 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 23, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.40 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.02 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. 1. FC Heidenheim outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.81 / defence 0.91 against 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.93 / defence 1.04, drawn from 56/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 44% | Draw 30% | 1. FC Heidenheim 26%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 48%, 1. FC Heidenheim 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union Berlin 1.54 PPG, 1. FC Heidenheim 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Union Berlin (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.