Werder Bremen 1-1 SV Darmstadt 98 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Werder Bremen at 57% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Werder Bremen vs SV Darmstadt 98 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
SV Darmstadt 98 travel to wohninvest WESERSTADION to take on Werder Bremen in Bundesliga (matchday 23). The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 February 2024 at 14:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Werder Bremen — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Werder Bremen at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, SV Darmstadt 98 stand at 0W 3D 7L — 0.30 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
SV Darmstadt 98 away from home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Werder Bremen have the edge — a 1.50 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Werder Bremen's games and 60% of SV Darmstadt 98's (from Werder Bremen's last 10 home games and SV Darmstadt 98's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Werder Bremen have won 1, SV Darmstadt 98 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.3 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 1 Oct 2023, ended Werder Bremen 2–4 SV Darmstadt 98 — a SV Darmstadt 98 win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Werder Bremen in-play and half-time data (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
SV Darmstadt 98 in-play and half-time data (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Werder Bremen 62% versus SV Darmstadt 98 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Werder Bremen 62% | SV Darmstadt 98 54%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Werder Bremen surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while SV Darmstadt 98 have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 1.97 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 0.985 / defence 1.119 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.795 / defence 1.204. League average goals — home 1.660 / away 1.213. SV Darmstadt 98's defence rating of 1.204 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Werder Bremen's projected output up. SV Darmstadt 98's attack rating of 0.795 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.08. Data: built from Werder Bremen's last 56 games and SV Darmstadt 98's last 22.
Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 57% | Draw 24% | SV Darmstadt 98 19%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 1.76 | Draw 4.13 | SV Darmstadt 98 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Werder Bremen (57%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Werder Bremen at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Werder Bremen's last 10 home games and SV Darmstadt 98's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Werder Bremen 60% (last 10 home games) | SV Darmstadt 98 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Werder Bremen vs SV Darmstadt 98 | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 23 | Venue: wohninvest WESERSTADION • Kick-off: Saturday 24 February 2024 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Werder Bremen 57% | Draw 24% | SV Darmstadt 98 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Werder Bremen 1.97 / SV Darmstadt 98 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Werder Bremen attack 0.985 / def 1.119 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.795 / def 1.204 | league avg home 1.660 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: Werder Bremen (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Werder Bremen xG
Expected Goals
1.08
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
58%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Werder Bremen vs SV Darmstadt 98 FAQs
What time does Werder Bremen vs SV Darmstadt 98 kick off?
Werder Bremen vs SV Darmstadt 98 kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 24 February 2024 at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What was the final score in Werder Bremen vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Werder Bremen 1 - 1 SV Darmstadt 98.
Where is Werder Bremen vs SV Darmstadt 98 being played?
The match is being played at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What competition is Werder Bremen vs SV Darmstadt 98 part of?
Werder Bremen vs SV Darmstadt 98 is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 23) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Werder Bremen vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our statistical model gives Werder Bremen a 57% chance of winning, SV Darmstadt 98 a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Werder Bremen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Werder Bremen and SV Darmstadt 98 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Werder Bremen vs SV Darmstadt 98 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Werder Bremen's attack rating (0.98) and SV Darmstadt 98's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.97 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SV Darmstadt 98's attack versus Werder Bremen's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Werder Bremen's last 56 games and SV Darmstadt 98's last 22 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Werder Bremen Win
57%
1.76
24%
4.13
19%
5.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Werder Bremen xG
Total xG
3.05
1.08
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
5.26
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
14%
7.17
Win to Nil
19%
5.18
3%
37.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 10.1 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Werder Bremen vs SV Darmstadt 98 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Werder Bremen and SV Darmstadt 98 expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 1.08 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Werder Bremen vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Werder Bremen come into this having played 56 games, going 18W 11D 27L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, SV Darmstadt 98 sit at 1.41 PPG from 56 outings (22W 13D 21L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Werder Bremen on 1.16 PPG, SV Darmstadt 98 on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Werder Bremen's home form reads 10W 3D 14L across their last 27 home games, a 1.22 PPG return.
Away from home, SV Darmstadt 98 have taken 1.30 points per game from their last 27 away games (10W 5D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
Werder Bremen are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; SV Darmstadt 98 are on 1.30 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Werder Bremen have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Werder Bremen
Blended
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
Werder Bremen (Home) vs SV Darmstadt 98 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Werder Bremen
Blended
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
❓ Werder Bremen vs SV Darmstadt 98 Form FAQs
What form are Werder Bremen and SV Darmstadt 98 in coming into this match?
Werder Bremen have gone 18W 11D 27L in their last 56 games (1.16 PPG), while SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 22W 13D 21L in their last 56 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Werder Bremen at home or SV Darmstadt 98 away?
SV Darmstadt 98's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Werder Bremen at home: 1.22 PPG; SV Darmstadt 98 away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from October 2021. They cover more than one competition — 2. Bundesliga, Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 24 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 Oct 2021, when SV Darmstadt 98 won SV Darmstadt 98 3-0 Werder Bremen.
Werder Bremen's record when hosting SV Darmstadt 98 specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Werder Bremen
1
Draws
2
SV Darmstadt 98
Recent Meetings
❓ Werder Bremen vs SV Darmstadt 98 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and SV Darmstadt 98?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Werder Bremen have won 1, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Werder Bremen and SV Darmstadt 98 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 February 2024: Werder Bremen 1-1 SV Darmstadt 98.
Who has won more matches between Werder Bremen and SV Darmstadt 98?
SV Darmstadt 98 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
SV Darmstadt 98 see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Werder Bremen 63%, SV Darmstadt 98 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Werder Bremen and 56% for SV Darmstadt 98. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Darmstadt 98 in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Werder Bremen home games / SV Darmstadt 98 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Werder Bremen vs SV Darmstadt 98 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Werder Bremen and SV Darmstadt 98 matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Werder Bremen's games and 48% of SV Darmstadt 98's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Werder Bremen and SV Darmstadt 98 matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Werder Bremen's matches and 56% of SV Darmstadt 98's.
Do Werder Bremen and SV Darmstadt 98 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Werder Bremen's recent matches and 56% of SV Darmstadt 98's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Werder Bremen and SV Darmstadt 98 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at wohninvest WESERSTADION, Regular Season - 23, as Werder Bremen and SV Darmstadt 98 drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 1.97 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.08 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Werder Bremen fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 0.98 / defence 1.12 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.80 / defence 1.20, drawn from 56/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 57% | Draw 24% | SV Darmstadt 98 19%, with Werder Bremen to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 62%, SV Darmstadt 98 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Werder Bremen's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Werder Bremen 1.16 PPG, SV Darmstadt 98 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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