Union Berlin 0-2 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Borussia Dortmund at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Union Berlin face Borussia Dortmund.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Borussia Dortmund travel to Stadion An der Alten Försterei to take on Union Berlin in Bundesliga (matchday 24). The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 March 2024 at 14:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Union Berlin stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Union Berlin's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Borussia Dortmund have recorded 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Borussia Dortmund away from home: 4W 5D 1L from their last 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Union Berlin at 1.50 PPG versus Borussia Dortmund's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Union Berlin have won 1, Borussia Dortmund 3, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 7 Oct 2023, ended Union Berlin 2–4 Borussia Dortmund — a Borussia Dortmund win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Union Berlin in-play tendencies (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Borussia Dortmund in-play tendencies (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 27 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Berlin 44% versus Borussia Dortmund 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 49% | Borussia Dortmund 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.03 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.862 / defence 0.971 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.220 / defence 0.719. League average goals — home 1.663 / away 1.257. Borussia Dortmund bring a tight defence (rating 0.719, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Union Berlin's projected output down. Borussia Dortmund have an above-average attack rating of 1.220, which lifts their away xG to 1.49. Data: built from Union Berlin's last 57 games and Borussia Dortmund's last 57.
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 24% | Draw 30% | Borussia Dortmund 46%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 4.12 | Draw 3.35 | Borussia Dortmund 2.18. Borussia Dortmund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Dortmund are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Dortmund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Union Berlin 30% (last 10 home games) | Borussia Dortmund 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 24 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Saturday 2 March 2024 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 24% | Draw 30% | Borussia Dortmund 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Union Berlin 1.03 / Borussia Dortmund 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.862 / def 0.971 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.220 / def 0.719 | league avg home 1.663 / away 1.257 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Borussia Dortmund xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund FAQs
What time does Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?
Union Berlin 0 - 2 Borussia Dortmund.
Where is Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 24) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 24% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 46% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Union Berlin's attack at 0.86x the league average against Borussia Dortmund's defence at 0.72x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Dortmund's attack versus Union Berlin's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Union Berlin's last 57 games and Borussia Dortmund's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.4%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
24%
4.12
30%
3.35
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
2.52
1.49
Borussia Dortmund xG
4.12
24%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
23%
4.44
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
5%
18.27
16%
6.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 12.0 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.4 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.49 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 57 outings, Union Berlin have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 25W 12D 20L record — L-D-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Borussia Dortmund's form line: 33W 13D 11L from 57 games, 1.96 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-L.
Put side by side, Borussia Dortmund are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Union Berlin.
Venue Form
On home soil, Union Berlin have posted 2.00 PPG from their last 28 home games (16W 8D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.53 PPG overall — Union Berlin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Borussia Dortmund have gone 12W 9D 7L from their last 28 away games — 1.61 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Union Berlin are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 2.26 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Blended
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
Union Berlin (Home) vs Borussia Dortmund (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Union Berlin
Blended
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
❓ Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund Form FAQs
What form are Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 25W 12D 20L in their last 57 games (1.53 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 33W 13D 11L in their last 57 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
Union Berlin's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 2.00 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Union Berlin or Borussia Dortmund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union Berlin have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Borussia Dortmund in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from February 2022. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 17 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 22 Feb 2025, when Borussia Dortmund won Borussia Dortmund 6-0 Union Berlin.
Union Berlin's record when hosting Borussia Dortmund specifically: 2W 1D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Union Berlin
1
Draws
7
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Union Berlin have won 2, Borussia Dortmund have won 7, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 October 2026: Union Berlin 0-0 Borussia Dortmund.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 46% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 46%, Borussia Dortmund 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Union Berlin) and 57% (Borussia Dortmund).
On the defensive side: Union Berlin keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Union Berlin's recent matches and 61% of Borussia Dortmund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Union Berlin's recent games and 57% of Borussia Dortmund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Union Berlin's recent matches and 89% of Borussia Dortmund's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Borussia Dortmund cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Union Berlin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat Union Berlin 0-2 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 24, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.03 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.49 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Union Berlin fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.86 / defence 0.97 against Borussia Dortmund attack 1.22 / defence 0.72, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 24% | Draw 30% | Borussia Dortmund 46%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 49%, Borussia Dortmund 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.53. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Union Berlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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