Union Berlin 0-2 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Borussia Dortmund travel to Stadion An der Alten Försterei to take on Union Berlin. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 March 2024, 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union Berlin stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union Berlin's home record at Stadion An der Alten Försterei: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Borussia Dortmund have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Dortmund away from home this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Union Berlin at 1.50 PPG versus Borussia Dortmund's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
Borussia Dortmund have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 5 encounters against Union Berlin's 1 victories.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2023, ended 2–4 with Borussia Dortmund winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Borussia Dortmund have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Union Berlin in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Borussia Dortmund in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Berlin 44% versus Borussia Dortmund 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 49% | Borussia Dortmund 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.03 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.862 / defence 0.971 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.220 / defence 0.719. League average goals — home 1.663 / away 1.257. Borussia Dortmund's defence strength of 0.719 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Borussia Dortmund have an above-average attack strength of 1.220 — the away xG of 1.49 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 57 Union Berlin games / 57 Borussia Dortmund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 24% | Draw 30% | Borussia Dortmund 46%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 4.17 | Draw 3.33 | Borussia Dortmund 2.17. Borussia Dortmund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Dortmund are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Dortmund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Union Berlin 30% | Borussia Dortmund 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Mar 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 24% | Draw 30% | Borussia Dortmund 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Union Berlin 1.03 / Borussia Dortmund 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.862 / def 0.971 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.220 / def 0.719 | league avg home 1.663 / away 1.257 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Borussia Dortmund xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?
Union Berlin 0 - 2 Borussia Dortmund.
Where is Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 24% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 46% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund?
Record (5 meetings): Union Berlin 1W | Draws 0 | Borussia Dortmund 4W.
What form are Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-W-D. Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Union Berlin's attack at 0.86x the league average against Borussia Dortmund's defence at 0.72x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Dortmund's attack versus Union Berlin's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.4%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
24%
4.12
30%
3.35
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
2.52
1.49
Borussia Dortmund xG
4.12
24%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
23%
4.44
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
5%
18.27
16%
6.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 12.0 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.4 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.49 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 57 outings, Union Berlin have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 25W 12D 20L record — L-D-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Borussia Dortmund's form line: 33W 13D 11L from 57 games, 1.96 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-L. The sample for Borussia Dortmund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Borussia Dortmund are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Union Berlin.
Venue Form
On home soil, Union Berlin have posted 2.00 PPG from 28 outings (16W 8D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.53 PPG overall — Union Berlin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Borussia Dortmund have gone 12W 9D 7L from 28 away games — 1.61 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Union Berlin are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 2.26 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Blended
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 25W 12D 20L in their last 57 games (1.53 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 33W 13D 11L in their last 57 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
Union Berlin's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 2.00 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Union Berlin or Borussia Dortmund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union Berlin have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Borussia Dortmund in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Borussia Dortmund have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Feb 2025, when Borussia Dortmund won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union Berlin's record when hosting Borussia Dortmund specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Union Berlin
0
Draws
8
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 2, Borussia Dortmund have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Union Berlin 0-3 Borussia Dortmund.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 46%, Borussia Dortmund 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Union Berlin) and 57% (Borussia Dortmund).
On the defensive side: Union Berlin keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play Borussia Dortmund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Union Berlin's recent matches and 61% of Borussia Dortmund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Union Berlin's recent games and 57% of Borussia Dortmund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Borussia Dortmund in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Borussia Dortmund cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Union Berlin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat Union Berlin 0-2 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 24, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.03 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.49 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Union Berlin fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.86 / defence 0.97 against Borussia Dortmund attack 1.22 / defence 0.72, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 24% | Draw 30% | Borussia Dortmund 46%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 49%, Borussia Dortmund 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.53. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Union Berlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.