1. FC Köln 0-2 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bayer Leverkusen (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as 1. FC Köln face Bayer Leverkusen.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bayer Leverkusen make the trip to Cologne Stadium to face 1. FC Köln in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Sunday 3 March 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
1. FC Köln's overall Bundesliga record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D W D L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Köln's home record at Cologne Stadium: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Bayer Leverkusen have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Bayer Leverkusen have posted 8W 2D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Bayer Leverkusen arrive in superior form — a 1.80 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — 1. FC Köln lead 2W to 4W over the last 7 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2023, ended 0–3 with Bayer Leverkusen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
1. FC Köln — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Bayer Leverkusen — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Köln 54% versus Bayer Leverkusen 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Köln 42% | Bayer Leverkusen 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Köln 0.79 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Köln attack 0.689 / defence 0.975 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.260 / defence 0.706. League average goals — home 1.633 / away 1.340. 1. FC Köln's attack strength of 0.689 is below the league average — the 0.79 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bayer Leverkusen's defence strength of 0.706 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Bayer Leverkusen have an above-average attack strength of 1.260 — the away xG of 1.65 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 57 1. FC Köln games / 57 Bayer Leverkusen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 16% | Draw 28% | Bayer Leverkusen 56%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Köln 6.25 | Draw 3.57 | Bayer Leverkusen 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Bayer Leverkusen (56%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: 1. FC Köln 40% | Bayer Leverkusen 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Cologne Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Mar 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 16% | Draw 28% | Bayer Leverkusen 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 46% | xG 1. FC Köln 0.79 / Bayer Leverkusen 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Köln attack 0.689 / def 0.975 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.260 / def 0.706 | league avg home 1.633 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
1. FC Köln xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Bayer Leverkusen xG
46%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 3 March 2024 at Cologne Stadium.
What was the final score in 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen?
1. FC Köln 0 - 2 Bayer Leverkusen.
Where is 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at Cologne Stadium.
What competition is 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Köln a 16% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 56% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both 1. FC Köln and Bayer Leverkusen will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and Bayer Leverkusen?
Record (7 meetings): 1. FC Köln 2W | Draws 1 | Bayer Leverkusen 4W.
What form are 1. FC Köln and Bayer Leverkusen in?
1. FC Köln (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-L-D. Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates 1. FC Köln's attack at 0.69x the league average against Bayer Leverkusen's defence at 0.71x — combine the two and it projects 0.79 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bayer Leverkusen's attack (1.26x) against 1. FC Köln's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.65.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.9%), 0-2 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
16%
6.22
28%
3.57
56%
1.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.8%
Away win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
1. FC Köln xG
Total xG
2.44
1.65
Bayer Leverkusen xG
6.22
16%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
1.79
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
19%
5.19
45%
2.21
Win to Nil
3%
32.26
25%
3.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 14.3 | 11.8 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.4 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are 1. FC Köln and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for 1. FC Köln and 1.65 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
1. FC Köln come into this having played 57 games, going 13W 20D 24L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-D. The sample for 1. FC Köln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bayer Leverkusen sit at 1.95 PPG from 57 outings (33W 12D 12L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Bayer Leverkusen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bayer Leverkusen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.91 PPG clear of 1. FC Köln — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
1. FC Köln's home form reads 8W 8D 12L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Bayer Leverkusen have taken 1.86 points per game from 28 outings (15W 7D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayer Leverkusen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
1. FC Köln are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 2.04 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Bayer Leverkusen in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Köln
Blended
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Köln and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
1. FC Köln have gone 13W 20D 24L in their last 57 games (1.04 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 33W 12D 12L in their last 57 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Köln at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
Bayer Leverkusen's away record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Köln at home: 1.14 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 1.86 PPG.
Have 1. FC Köln or Bayer Leverkusen been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Köln have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Bayer Leverkusen in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Bayer Leverkusen have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bayer Leverkusen won 0-4 on 16 Dec 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Köln have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bayer Leverkusen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
1. FC Köln
1
Draws
7
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and Bayer Leverkusen?
From 10 meetings on record, 1. FC Köln have won 2, Bayer Leverkusen have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Köln and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when 1. FC Köln 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Köln and Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Köln 50%, Bayer Leverkusen 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (1. FC Köln) and 64% (Bayer Leverkusen).
On the defensive side: Bayer Leverkusen in 32%; 1. FC Köln have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Köln home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Köln play Bayer Leverkusen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of 1. FC Köln's recent matches and 50% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of 1. FC Köln's recent games and 64% of Bayer Leverkusen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do 1. FC Köln and Bayer Leverkusen tend to score early?
1. FC Köln have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bayer Leverkusen cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over 1. FC Köln.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayer Leverkusen beat 1. FC Köln 0-2 at Cologne Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 0.79 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.65 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 0.69 / defence 0.97 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.26 / defence 0.71, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 16% | Draw 28% | Bayer Leverkusen 56%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Köln 42%, Bayer Leverkusen 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Köln's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was vindicated by the result. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.