Eintracht Frankfurt 2-2 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 78% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Eintracht Frankfurt host FC Augsburg at Deutsche Bank Park in Bundesliga (matchday 13). Kick-off is Saturday 7 December 2024 at 14:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Eintracht Frankfurt stand at 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Eintracht Frankfurt have posted 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Augsburg — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC Augsburg's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 1D 8L (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On current form, Eintracht Frankfurt have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Eintracht Frankfurt's last 10 home games and FC Augsburg's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Eintracht Frankfurt, 1 for FC Augsburg and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 19 Apr 2024, ended Eintracht Frankfurt 3–1 FC Augsburg — a Eintracht Frankfurt win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Eintracht Frankfurt trading profile (last 46 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
FC Augsburg trading profile (last 46 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 96% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Frankfurt 67% and FC Augsburg 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Frankfurt 61% | FC Augsburg 65%). Note also that FC Augsburg surrender HT leads in 36% of cases while Eintracht Frankfurt recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 54% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 3.09 xG and FC Augsburg 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.407 / defence 0.913 | FC Augsburg attack 0.711 / defence 1.324. League average goals — home 1.658 / away 1.465. Eintracht Frankfurt carry an above-average attack rating of 1.407 — their 3.09 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. FC Augsburg's defence rating of 1.324 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Eintracht Frankfurt's projected output up. FC Augsburg's attack rating of 0.711 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.95. Data: built from Eintracht Frankfurt's last 46 games and FC Augsburg's last 46.
Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 78% | Draw 15% | FC Augsburg 7%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 1.28 | Draw 6.88 | FC Augsburg 14.14. The model has a clear lean to Eintracht Frankfurt (78%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 4.04. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.04 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (3.09 / 0.95) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Eintracht Frankfurt as the most likely outcome at 78% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.04 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 77% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Eintracht Frankfurt's last 10 home games and FC Augsburg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Eintracht Frankfurt 70% (last 10 home games) | FC Augsburg 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 13 | Venue: Deutsche Bank Park • Kick-off: Saturday 7 December 2024 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 78% | Draw 15% | FC Augsburg 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% (Under 23%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Eintracht Frankfurt 3.09 / FC Augsburg 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.407 / def 0.913 | FC Augsburg attack 0.711 / def 1.324 | league avg home 1.658 / away 1.465 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (78%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.09
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Expected Goals
0.95
FC Augsburg xG
60%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg FAQs
What time does Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg kick off?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 7 December 2024 at Deutsche Bank Park.
What was the final score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg?
Eintracht Frankfurt 2 - 2 FC Augsburg.
Where is Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at Deutsche Bank Park.
What competition is Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg part of?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 13) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 78% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 7% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Augsburg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Eintracht Frankfurt's attacking strength (1.41x league average) is weighed against FC Augsburg's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 3.09. The same calculation in reverse, FC Augsburg's attack versus Eintracht Frankfurt's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Eintracht Frankfurt's last 46 games and FC Augsburg's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 3-0, at 8.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (8.4%), 3-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
78%
1.28
15%
6.88
7%
14.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.4%
Home win
3 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.09
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Total xG
4.04
0.95
FC Augsburg xG
1.28
78%
Home win
6.88
15%
Draw
14.14
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
5%
21.98
Win to Nil
30%
3.30
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.6 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 6.7 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 3-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.6%.
How many goals are Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 3.09 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 0.95 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 4.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 78%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Eintracht Frankfurt come into this having played 46 games, going 19W 16D 11L for 1.59 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, FC Augsburg sit at 1.17 PPG from 46 outings (14W 12D 20L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-W across their last five.
Eintracht Frankfurt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Eintracht Frankfurt's home form reads 11W 9D 2L across their last 22 home games, a 1.91 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Augsburg have taken 0.73 points per game from their last 22 away games (4W 4D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Augsburg's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eintracht Frankfurt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Eintracht Frankfurt are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.39 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; FC Augsburg in 65%.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
FC Augsburg
Blended
Eintracht Frankfurt (Home) vs FC Augsburg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
FC Augsburg
Blended
❓ Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg Form FAQs
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 19W 16D 11L in their last 46 games (1.59 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 14W 12D 20L in their last 46 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Frankfurt at home or FC Augsburg away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 1.91 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to January 2022. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 6 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 Sep 2026, when FC Augsburg won Eintracht Frankfurt 1-4 FC Augsburg.
Eintracht Frankfurt's record when hosting FC Augsburg specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Eintracht Frankfurt
5
Draws
2
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Augsburg?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 3, FC Augsburg have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Augsburg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 September 2026: Eintracht Frankfurt 1-4 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Augsburg?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 71% of those situations.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eintracht Frankfurt 68%, FC Augsburg 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Eintracht Frankfurt and 68% for FC Augsburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eintracht Frankfurt keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; FC Augsburg in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Frankfurt home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Augsburg matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Eintracht Frankfurt's games and 59% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Augsburg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Eintracht Frankfurt's matches and 68% of FC Augsburg's.
Do Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Augsburg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Eintracht Frankfurt's recent matches and 96% of FC Augsburg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Augsburg share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Augsburg finished level at 2-2 at Deutsche Bank Park, Regular Season - 13, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 3.09 xG and FC Augsburg 0.95 xG, a combined 4.04. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Eintracht Frankfurt fell 1.1 short of their projected output. FC Augsburg outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.41 / defence 0.91 against FC Augsburg attack 0.71 / defence 1.32, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 78% | Draw 15% | FC Augsburg 7%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 78%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 61%, FC Augsburg 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Eintracht Frankfurt arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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