Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 FC St. Pauli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bayer Leverkusen vs FC St. Pauli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC St. Pauli make the trip to BayArena to face Bayer Leverkusen in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Saturday 7 December 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
Bayer Leverkusen's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 5D 0L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D D D W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bayer Leverkusen's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at BayArena this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC St. Pauli (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC St. Pauli away from home this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Bayer Leverkusen. A 0.90 PPG lead over FC St. Pauli (2.00 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
Bayer Leverkusen — key trading statistics (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
FC St. Pauli — key trading statistics (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bayer Leverkusen 63% versus FC St. Pauli 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bayer Leverkusen 74% | FC St. Pauli 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bayer Leverkusen 1.91 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.278 / defence 0.995 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.815 / defence 0.901. League average goals — home 1.658 / away 1.465. Bayer Leverkusen carry an above-average attack strength of 1.278 — their λ of 1.91 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 46 Bayer Leverkusen games / 12 FC St. Pauli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 52% | Draw 27% | FC St. Pauli 21%. Fair-value odds: Bayer Leverkusen 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | FC St. Pauli 4.76. Bayer Leverkusen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.91 / 1.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bayer Leverkusen are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bayer Leverkusen if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.10 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bayer Leverkusen 80% | FC St. Pauli 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bayer Leverkusen vs FC St. Pauli | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: BayArena • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Dec 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 52% | Draw 27% | FC St. Pauli 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Bayer Leverkusen 1.91 / FC St. Pauli 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.278 / def 0.995 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.815 / def 0.901 | league avg home 1.658 / away 1.465 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Expected Goals
1.19
FC St. Pauli xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bayer Leverkusen vs FC St. Pauli kick off?
Bayer Leverkusen vs FC St. Pauli kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 7 December 2024 at BayArena.
What was the final score in Bayer Leverkusen vs FC St. Pauli?
Bayer Leverkusen 2 - 1 FC St. Pauli.
Where is Bayer Leverkusen vs FC St. Pauli being played?
The match is being played at BayArena.
What competition is Bayer Leverkusen vs FC St. Pauli part of?
Bayer Leverkusen vs FC St. Pauli is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Bayer Leverkusen vs FC St. Pauli?
Our statistical model gives Bayer Leverkusen a 52% chance of winning, FC St. Pauli a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bayer Leverkusen vs FC St. Pauli?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Bayer Leverkusen and FC St. Pauli will score (BTTS).
Will Bayer Leverkusen vs FC St. Pauli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and FC St. Pauli?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and FC St. Pauli in?
Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-W-W. FC St. Pauli (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bayer Leverkusen's attacking strength (1.28x league average) is weighed against FC St. Pauli's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.91. Flip it around — FC St. Pauli's attack (0.81x) against Bayer Leverkusen's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 46/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
52%
1.93
27%
3.72
21%
4.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Total xG
3.10
1.19
FC St. Pauli xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
4.70
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
30%
3.28
15%
6.75
Win to Nil
16%
6.33
3%
31.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 10.2 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bayer Leverkusen vs FC St. Pauli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Bayer Leverkusen and FC St. Pauli expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.19 for FC St. Pauli, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Bayer Leverkusen vs FC St. Pauli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bayer Leverkusen come into this having played 46 games, going 34W 11D 1L for 2.46 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-W-W. The sample for Bayer Leverkusen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC St. Pauli sit at 1.74 PPG from 46 outings (23W 11D 12L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for FC St. Pauli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bayer Leverkusen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.72 PPG clear of FC St. Pauli — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Bayer Leverkusen's home form reads 17W 5D 1L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.43 PPG return.
Away from home, FC St. Pauli have taken 1.61 points per game from 23 outings (11W 4D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayer Leverkusen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bayer Leverkusen are averaging 2.54 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; FC St. Pauli are on 1.57 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bayer Leverkusen have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Bayer Leverkusen have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
FC St. Pauli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and FC St. Pauli in coming into this match?
Bayer Leverkusen have gone 34W 11D 1L in their last 46 games (2.46 PPG), while FC St. Pauli have gone 23W 11D 12L in their last 46 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bayer Leverkusen at home or FC St. Pauli away?
Bayer Leverkusen's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bayer Leverkusen at home: 2.43 PPG; FC St. Pauli away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Bayer Leverkusen or FC St. Pauli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bayer Leverkusen have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, FC St. Pauli in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Bayer Leverkusen have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bayer Leverkusen won 4-0 on 14 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FC St. Pauli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Bayer Leverkusen
1
Draws
0
FC St. Pauli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and FC St. Pauli?
From 4 meetings on record, Bayer Leverkusen have won 3, FC St. Pauli have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bayer Leverkusen and FC St. Pauli last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Bayer Leverkusen 4-0 FC St. Pauli.
Who has won more matches between Bayer Leverkusen and FC St. Pauli?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bayer Leverkusen 61%, FC St. Pauli 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Bayer Leverkusen and 56% for FC St. Pauli. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bayer Leverkusen keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bayer Leverkusen home games / FC St. Pauli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bayer Leverkusen play FC St. Pauli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Bayer Leverkusen's games and 61% of FC St. Pauli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bayer Leverkusen vs FC St. Pauli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Bayer Leverkusen's matches and 56% of FC St. Pauli's.
Do Bayer Leverkusen and FC St. Pauli tend to score early?
Bayer Leverkusen have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, FC St. Pauli in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bayer Leverkusen edge out FC St. Pauli 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayer Leverkusen beat FC St. Pauli 2-1 at BayArena, Regular Season - 13, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayer Leverkusen 1.91 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.19 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.28 / defence 0.99 against FC St. Pauli attack 0.81 / defence 0.90, drawn from 46/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bayer Leverkusen 52% | Draw 27% | FC St. Pauli 21%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayer Leverkusen 74%, FC St. Pauli 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 2.46 PPG against 1.74. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.