Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-1 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 64% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Borussia Mönchengladbach face Borussia Dortmund.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

BORUSSIA-PARK plays host to Borussia Mönchengladbach versus Borussia Dortmund in Bundesliga (matchday 13). Kick-off: Saturday 7 December 2024 at 17:30 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Borussia Mönchengladbach have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Borussia Mönchengladbach have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Borussia Dortmund (all games): 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Borussia Dortmund's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, 1.60 for Borussia Dortmund — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 10 home games and Borussia Dortmund's last 10 away games) — Borussia Mönchengladbach have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Borussia Dortmund in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 6 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Borussia Mönchengladbach, 4 for Borussia Dortmund and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.8 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 13 Apr 2024, ended Borussia Mönchengladbach 1–2 Borussia Dortmund — a Borussia Dortmund win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Borussia Mönchengladbach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 46 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.

Borussia Dortmund goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 46 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 91% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Mönchengladbach 70% and Borussia Dortmund 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Borussia Mönchengladbach 70% | Borussia Dortmund 65%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Borussia Mönchengladbach surrender their half-time lead 46% of the time, while Borussia Dortmund have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 46% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.45 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.194 / defence 0.946 | Borussia Dortmund attack 0.849 / defence 1.256. League average goals — home 1.634 / away 1.477. Borussia Dortmund's defence rating of 1.256 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Borussia Mönchengladbach's projected output up. Data: built from Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 46 games and Borussia Dortmund's last 46.

Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 64% | Draw 21% | Borussia Dortmund 15%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.57 | Draw 4.80 | Borussia Dortmund 6.48. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Mönchengladbach (64%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.64. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.64 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (2.45 / 1.19) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Borussia Mönchengladbach as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.64 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 10 home games and Borussia Dortmund's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.8 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Borussia Mönchengladbach 60% (last 10 home games) | Borussia Dortmund 70% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights