Holstein Kiel 3-4 FC St. Pauli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC St. Pauli at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Holstein Kiel face FC St. Pauli.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Holstein Kiel host FC St. Pauli at Holstein-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 23). Kick-off is Friday 23 February 2024 at 17:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Holstein Kiel — last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Holstein Kiel's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.20 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Looking at their last 10 matches, FC St. Pauli stand at 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC St. Pauli's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 road games (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Holstein Kiel at 2.20 PPG versus FC St. Pauli's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Holstein Kiel's last 10 home games and FC St. Pauli's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Holstein Kiel have won 1, FC St. Pauli 3, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 17 Sep 2023, ended Holstein Kiel 1–5 FC St. Pauli — a FC St. Pauli win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Holstein Kiel in-play and half-time data (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
FC St. Pauli in-play and half-time data (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Holstein Kiel 70% and FC St. Pauli 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Holstein Kiel 68% | FC St. Pauli 52%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Holstein Kiel surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while FC St. Pauli have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Holstein Kiel 1.37 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Holstein Kiel attack 1.027 / defence 1.055 | FC St. Pauli attack 1.015 / defence 0.839. League average goals — home 1.594 / away 1.370. Data: built from Holstein Kiel's last 56 games and FC St. Pauli's last 56.
Result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 35% | Draw 25% | FC St. Pauli 40%. Fair-value odds: Holstein Kiel 2.83 | Draw 3.99 | FC St. Pauli 2.53. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC St. Pauli as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC St. Pauli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Holstein Kiel's last 10 home games and FC St. Pauli's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Holstein Kiel 70% (last 10 home games) | FC St. Pauli 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 23 | Venue: Holstein-Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 23 February 2024 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 35% | Draw 25% | FC St. Pauli 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Holstein Kiel 1.37 / FC St. Pauli 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Holstein Kiel attack 1.027 / def 1.055 | FC St. Pauli attack 1.015 / def 0.839 | league avg home 1.594 / away 1.370 • Poisson stance: FC St. Pauli (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Holstein Kiel xG
Expected Goals
1.47
FC St. Pauli xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli FAQs
What time does Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli kick off?
Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Friday 23 February 2024 at Holstein-Stadion.
What was the final score in Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli?
Holstein Kiel 3 - 4 FC St. Pauli.
Where is Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli being played?
The match is being played at Holstein-Stadion.
What competition is Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli part of?
Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 23) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli?
Our statistical model gives Holstein Kiel a 35% chance of winning, FC St. Pauli a 40% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FC St. Pauli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Holstein Kiel and FC St. Pauli will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Holstein Kiel's attack at 1.03x the league average against FC St. Pauli's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC St. Pauli's attack versus Holstein Kiel's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Holstein Kiel's last 56 games and FC St. Pauli's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC St. Pauli Win
35%
2.83
25%
3.99
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Holstein Kiel xG
Total xG
2.84
1.47
FC St. Pauli xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
23%
4.34
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
8%
12.25
10%
9.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.6 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.8 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.1 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Holstein Kiel and FC St. Pauli expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Holstein Kiel and 1.47 for FC St. Pauli, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Holstein Kiel's recent record stands at 25W 13D 18L from 56 games, a 1.57 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-W in the last five.
FC St. Pauli, meanwhile, have gone 28W 19D 9L across 56 games — 1.84 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Holstein Kiel on 1.57 PPG, FC St. Pauli on 1.84. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Holstein Kiel have managed 12W 4D 11L from their last 27 home games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC St. Pauli's away record stands at 12W 7D 8L across their last 27 away games, a 1.59 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Holstein Kiel are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; FC St. Pauli are on 1.68 scored and 1.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Holstein Kiel have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Defensively: FC St. Pauli in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Holstein Kiel
Blended
FC St. Pauli
Blended
Holstein Kiel (Home) vs FC St. Pauli (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Holstein Kiel
Blended
FC St. Pauli
Blended
❓ Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli Form FAQs
What form are Holstein Kiel and FC St. Pauli in coming into this match?
Holstein Kiel have gone 25W 13D 18L in their last 56 games (1.57 PPG), while FC St. Pauli have gone 28W 19D 9L in their last 56 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Holstein Kiel at home or FC St. Pauli away?
FC St. Pauli's away record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Holstein Kiel at home: 1.48 PPG; FC St. Pauli away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Holstein Kiel or FC St. Pauli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Holstein Kiel have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, FC St. Pauli in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 5 years from July 2021. They cover more than one competition — 2. Bundesliga, Bundesliga. The most recent was on 14 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 Sep 2023, when FC St. Pauli won FC St. Pauli 5-1 Holstein Kiel.
Holstein Kiel's record when hosting FC St. Pauli specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Holstein Kiel
2
Draws
6
FC St. Pauli
Recent Meetings
❓ Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and FC St. Pauli?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Holstein Kiel have won 1, FC St. Pauli have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Holstein Kiel and FC St. Pauli last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 August 2026: Holstein Kiel 2-2 FC St. Pauli.
Who has won more matches between Holstein Kiel and FC St. Pauli?
FC St. Pauli have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Holstein Kiel at 78%, FC St. Pauli at 59%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Holstein Kiel and 59% for FC St. Pauli. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Holstein Kiel home games / FC St. Pauli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Holstein Kiel and FC St. Pauli matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Holstein Kiel's games and 59% of FC St. Pauli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Holstein Kiel and FC St. Pauli matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Holstein Kiel's matches and 59% of FC St. Pauli's.
Do Holstein Kiel and FC St. Pauli matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 85% of Holstein Kiel's recent matches and 78% of FC St. Pauli's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC St. Pauli edge out Holstein Kiel 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC St. Pauli beat Holstein Kiel 3-4 at Holstein-Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Holstein Kiel 1.37 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.47 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Holstein Kiel beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC St. Pauli outscored their 1.47 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Holstein Kiel attack 1.03 / defence 1.05 against FC St. Pauli attack 1.01 / defence 0.84, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Holstein Kiel 35% | Draw 25% | FC St. Pauli 40%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Holstein Kiel 68%, FC St. Pauli 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Holstein Kiel 1.57 PPG, FC St. Pauli 1.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC St. Pauli win broke the near-deadlock. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.78 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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